Kiss a Democrat, Hug a Republican (A Call For Unity NOW!)

I know everyone is getting tired of the political posts on their timelines, but this one is really important. Like, REALLY important.

Something is up. And it's bad.

POTUS #44 Barack Obama has ended his term and POTUS #45 Donald Trump has been sworn in, but something is blocking me (a right-leaning Libertarian who supported Trump) from being totally happy about it.

It's the fact that the country is so divided right now.

I completely get it. President Donald Trump said some nasty things during the campaign that turned a lot of people off. In fact, I stopped supporting him for a brief period after that haunting Access Hollywood video came out. Even though I had supported him since the end of May 2016 after he clinched the nomination, even that turned me off from him for a while. But then I thought about it a couple weeks after that video and decided to cast my vote based off of policy and not personality.

I completely understand why people are mad about Hillary winning the popular vote but not the presidency. People are angry that we won't have a female president for four years, and while I didn't support her candidacy, I myself want to see a woman in the White House someday.

But enough about electoral politics, because that's not why I decided to write this article.

I decided to write this article because I've noticed something really bad. It's that the political tension in the air has reached an all-new level. Though I've already explained above a little bit of why that is, now I want to offer the biggest olive branch ever.

We, as Americans, need to unify, and we need to do so NOW. 

Let me explain a little why I feel this way and what I mean.

So I had the opportunity to attend the 58th Presidential Inauguration and it was easily one of the best days of my life, but when I was there, there was an uneasy feeling. My dad and I were in the silver ticket area, which was not too close but not too far. There was a great view of the stage and a screen that showed exactly what the viewers at home were watching. About an hour before the swearing-in ceremony began, the past presidents, first ladies, and other dignitaries were coming in. When former first lady Hillary Clinton appeared on the screen, things got ugly. Everybody around us started jeering and booing her into oblivion. I'm not sure if those at home could hear it, but it was very loud around us. It became obvious that the stereotypical Trump supporters were not ready to let go of the fact that she lost when they started chanting "Lock her up, lock her up..." Then the booing got worse as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi showed up and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer spoke; it got so bad that I couldn't hear half of what he was talking about over the insults and boos.

Let me make it clear that I may not agree with some of the politics of Clinton and Pelosi and Schumer, but I at least respect them as people. I respect all peaceful Democrats and Republicans alike as people, even if I don't agree with their political views.

The beginning of a new administration is kind of like the beginning of a new year: it is a perfect time for the country to get a fresh start and for people to promise to follow new political habits. I want to start this administration by promising to listen to the other side and root for them when they do things that I agree with, like when they enforce their free speech rights at the Women's March on Washington. I respect those who took part in that historic march, and I want people to continue to voice their opinions whether I agree with them or not.

Unification means we need to tolerate one another and not attack them when they voice an opinion that is against yours. It doesn't mean we all have to share the same views; it's obvious that will NEVER happen.

Unification means we need to put electoral politics aside and focus on helping the new administration govern. Let's end the 'Lock Her Up' talk and focus on getting along with each other and moving an agenda forward that the American people can agree on.

Unification means we need to stop the violence. Stop breaking things. Stop looting Starbucks and breaking their windows. Stop punching people as they are being interviewed on live television, even if they share very radical views.

Unification means when people are trying to scream words of dissent at you in order to shut you up, it means you keep talking. Try to get them to listen to you. If you are the dissenter, listen to them. It's surprising how much you will actually agree with each other if you start listening and getting along.

Unification means knowing that we are all in this together. Whatever happens these next four years and beyond, we are ONE country. ONE nation under God.

Former President Barack Obama said in a speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2004 that "there is not a liberal America and a conservative America, there is the United States of America."

President Donald Trump said in his inaugural speech that "when America is united, America is totally unstoppable."

Now, I know I can't ever achieve world peace. I will never be able to get everyone in the world to agree with each other and tolerate each other, but I want to get the ball rolling for the generations ahead. Let's show that we are not the generation of political divisiveness and that we are the generation of toleration. Let's get started. As Stephen Colbert famously said during his election night coverage, don't be afraid to kiss a Democrat or hug a Republican. Let's put the hate behind us and let's all be kind to each other.

If I think of other ways we can unite, I will edit this article as need be. I will also be open to political debate, as it allows me to start on my new resolution for the new administration as explained above.

Thank you for taking the time to read this, and as always, be a positive force.

In Liberty,
Jacob Stech

My Endorsement of Donald J. Trump

The time is finally here.

There are many reasons why I decided against supporting Donald Trump in the Republican primaries. At first, he turned me off during his gaffe-filled summer in which he called illegal immigrants rapists and denounced John McCain as a war hero because "he had been captured", neither of which stopped his campaign. I distanced myself even further when he announced that he wanted to ban all Muslims from coming into the United States. I even wanted to leave the Republican Party after the same man who had previously said that women should be punished for having abortions won the nomination in Indiana.

But then I thought about it. And thought about it. And thought about it a little more.

And I remembered that I promised to support the eventual Republican nominee, and I will not break this promise.

And I figured out that the mainstream media likes to twist Donald Trump's words because they are trying to rig the election for Hillary Clinton. He said his abortion comments because he was asked what he would do if abortion were to be illegal, so it makes sense that he would say that those associated with it should be punished. Because it would be ILLEGAL.

And I figured out that we need to do anything to stop Hillary Clinton, even if that is voting for an "orange-faced windbag" such as Mr. Trump (Sen. Rand Paul's words, not mine).

Hillary Clinton cannot be the next President because she has shown time and time again that she cannot be trusted. Just yesterday, the State Department said that she violated the rules when she used her personal server instead of the government issued email address she should have used. Also, look at the other numerous messes she got herself into throughout her life, such as the Benghazi incident, the Whitewater scandal, and the Wall Street speeches she won't release. Having her run this country for the next four to eight years would be a huge mistake.

We need Donald Trump in the White House because we need somebody who actually cares about our country, even if he might be a little unpredictable from time to time with his comments. We need somebody who will nominate a conservative Supreme Court Justice; if we leave this to Hillary, the Supreme Court will be liberal for a few generations. We need someone who is a proven leader who has run a successful business.

I have been reading excerpts from his newest book, Crippled America: How to Make America Great Again, and I can see that Donald Trump is actually serious about becoming President. He can take our country out of the hole that we are in now, and he can make us prosper, but only if we work as a team. Donald Trump is running for President because he cares about the people of our country, while Hillary only cares about herself and her political career.

Donald Trump's policies also aren't THAT bad. While his position on free trade doesn't necessarily fall within the party's platform, he shows that he wants to keep jobs in America rather than in China or in the European Union. While he may have controversial policies such as building a wall on the Mexican border or banning Muslims from coming into the country, I can assure you that while a wall MAY happen, a Muslim ban is not going to pass through Congress, even if Trump works with a Republican majority. Also, Trump is starting to change his mind on the Muslim position, which is really good because I do not support that at all. And the wall isn't THAT bad of an idea.

The Republican Party needs to unify around a common goal of defeating Hillary Clinton. I know that Donald Trump is not the candidate that most of the party wanted, but I would rather have him in the White House versus Hillary Clinton. While it may take some people longer than others to decide what they will do once November rolls around, I want people to remember these next few sentences if they are undecided.

A vote for a third party candidate is a vote for Hillary Clinton.

A vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote for Hillary Clinton (obviously).

Not voting at all is a vote for Hillary Clinton.

The only way to assure that Hillary Clinton does not step anywhere near the White House is to cast a vote for Donald J. Trump.

I do have one condition, though. If a viable third-party candidate steps up to the plate, like Mitt Romney or another conservative that has a legitimate chance of beating both candidates, then I may reconsider voting for Donald Trump. But the odds of this happening are very slim, and like I said, a third party candidate will only take votes away from Trump, making sure that Hillary wins.

I wish everyone luck in deciding what to do, but consider this post when doing so.

Let's Make America Great Again,
Jacob Stech '18

Current State of the Race: My Struggle

I am finally back.

So my college life has completely taken over since I last posted about my predictions for the New Hampshire primary. I have finally found a spare moment where I can finally update everything on the website, and I hope to post more now that the general election is coming up. As everyone already knows, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders won those races with 'yuge' landslides.

Now that the Republican primary is over and the Democratic Primary is wrapping up, it is time to look at the general election in a realistic light. Donald Trump, much to most people's dismay, has won the Republican nomination, and it looks like Hillary Clinton will clinch the nomination from Bernie Sanders on June 14th. So we are now looking at a Trump vs. Clinton election, and I cannot be more confused as to what to do.

I have been posting rapidly on Facebook the past couple days abut my struggle of whether I can support Donald Trump in the general election. I have decided to take a backseat for now and wait until he picks a Vice Presidential running mate before I make a final decision as to whether I will support him. But here's the thing. While I am not sure if I will support Donald Trump, I am 100% sure that I will not be casting a ballot for Hillary Clinton because she has shown that she is untrustworthy and that she will say or do anything to become President of the United States. And I will never let that happen. So, as you can see, I am a member of the #NeverHillary movement.
But while I was a member of the #NeverTrump movement during the primary season, am I ready to revoke my membership just yet?

Here are the questions I and most other Republicans need to ask ourselves: Do I hate Hillary Clinton enough to vote for Donald Trump? Am I aware that voting third-party or not voting at all gives the election to Hillary Clinton, who I KNOW will be a horrible president, rather than giving it to Donald Trump, who only MIGHT be bad? Am I ready to support someone who has shown a history of being unpredictable and unapologetic over someone who is untrustworthy and corrupt?

If I have to make an honest statement, here it is. I am currently leaning towards supporting the Donald, but I am not ready to make it 100% official until he picks a Vice President that can get rid of the craziness of the presumptive Republican nominee. Also, we need to look at policy over personality, and as of right now, Donald Trump is more favorable. in my opinion, in that standard.

I wish everyone luck in their struggle, and I hope we can get through this dumpster fire of a general election in one piece.

In Liberty,
Jacob Stech '18

P.S. While I was wrapping this up, Lindsay Graham just announced that he will not be supporting either candidate in November. Thanks for making this decision just a little bit harder.

2016 New Hampshire Primary Predictions: Democrats and Republicans

New Hampshire Democratic Primary 2016 Predictions

Every single NH poll since before the Iowa caucuses has put Bernie Sanders ahead of Hillary Clinton by leads of 20 points or more. I predict that Bernie Sanders will beat Hillary Clinton tomorrow night, but I think it will only be by a 10 point margin or less. Polls tend to create stories of major leads that don't exist, and I feel like this race will have the same result. Despite critics saying Hillary Clinton should skip New Hampshire completely due to the major lead Sanders has in the state, she has stayed in the state and trying to eat away at his lead the best she can. I think that she will eat away at his lead, but not by too much because Bernie is extremely popular in the state that neighbors his home state of Vermont. 

New Hampshire Republican Primary 2016 Predictions

For this contest, I will go by candidate since it is the easiest way to go. 

Jeb Bush

Jeb Bush's entire campaign has put its trust on the voters of the Granite State. If he does not do well in the state, he might as well drop out of the race completely. Personally, I feel like he is slowly becoming an afterthought, and a poor performance in the state will all but finish his chances of becoming President. The famous "Please clap." meme isn't helping, either. My prediction for Bush #3 is that the establishment race will be won by Rubio and the remaining establishment candidates (Bush, Christie, and Kasich) will be really close in the rankings. Unless Marco Rubio completely blows the other candidates out of the water, expect Bush to stay in the race with the help of his SuperPAC, Right to Rise. 

Ben Carson

Carson is an afterthought in this state. During my New Hampshire trip, he did not visit the state at all. He had spent all of his time in Iowa to protect the decent numbers that he would eventually get in the Hawkeye State. I expect Carson to do horribly in NH, but I expect him to wait until South Carolina before dropping out of the race completely to see if this primary can revive his flailing campaign. 

Chris Christie

As said earlier, expect a fight between Christie, Bush, and Kasich behind Rubio. I expect the New Jersey governor to do better here than he did in Iowa, but if he does poorly in this state, he will drop out tomorrow night or soon after. 

Ted Cruz

Again, I am not saying Ted Cruz will do decently well because I am a supporter of his, but I believe he will beat expectations in the state. Being a volunteer of Cruz's New Hampshire efforts, I believe that Cruz has one of the best ground games of the entire campaign; the campaign headquarters is always busy doing something to spread Ted Cruz's message. However, I am unsure if the Carson/Cruz controversy in Iowa will hurt his chances in the Granite State. I know for a fact that his NH staffers would never do what his campaign did in Iowa, but the damage might already be done. I expect Cruz to possibly get second or third place in New Hampshire. If he gets third place, I believe it will be because one of the establishment candidates other than Rubio broke through, not because of Donald Trump. I expect him to do better than what the polls are saying because I expect most of Rand Paul's voters to go to Cruz because he is the most like Paul when it comes to his message of liberty. This will definitely be enough to exceed expectations, but I doubt it will be enough to win the primary altogether because the rest of the electorate favors the establishment candidates such as Rubio, Kasich, Christie, and Bush. 

Carly Fiorina

Sadly, I do not see a path for her to win the primary nor the nomination. ABC snubbed her out of the debate right before New Hampshire, and I believe this will have the same effects as Iowa when it came to Trump and him skipping the debate. She will most likely perform poorly in the state and I expect her to drop out tomorrow night or soon after. 

Jim Gilmore

The achievement of 12 votes in Iowa was enough to get Jim Gilmore energized for New Hampshire, where he says his campaign will do very well despite not being known by most of the country. I am currently unsure if he will wait until Virginia's primary to drop out, but I fully expect him to get last place in Tuesday's primary. I would not be surprised at all if he decided to end his campaign tomorrow night or soon after, much like Fiorina. 

John Kasich

See Christie and Bush. I believe John Kasich has the best chance of being the "breakout" establishment candidate; this is because while I was phone-banking, I got a lot of Kasich supporters, but this could have been by complete chance. I also believe his positive message will resonate with voters better than Christie's and Bush's less positive ones. Even if Kasich performs very poorly, I expect him to stay a little longer until the Ohio primary (March 15th) where he could get a boost in delegates due to his position as the current governor of the state. 

Marco Rubio

I believe Marco Rubio has the best chance of winning this primary overall. His impressive third place finish in Iowa created a big boost of momentum. Throughout the past week, Rubio has received many endorsements, including those of Rick Santorum and Tim Scott. Also, Marco Rubio has been able to appeal to young voters who are not already with Ted Cruz or on the other side of the party line with Bernie Sanders. It is unclear if his mediocre debate performance on Saturday hurt his chances of winning, but nevertheless, if Marco Rubio can secure a big win here, it could possibly propel him far enough to win the nomination. 

Donald Trump 

Just like in Iowa, I do not believe a lot of Trump's voters will actually go out and vote for him. Even though most of the New Hampshire polls have him leading by double digits, I believe that he will end up getting second or third place because he has not done well in the state when it comes to ground game and voter turnout. His phone-banking system calls mostly Bernie supporters and those who do not have a history of voting, and while I was in the state, they did absolutely no door-knocking whatsoever, which is a very important part of a traditional campaign. It is possible that the Trump campaign fixed some of these problems after his horrible performance in Iowa, but I believe it is too late for those changes to make any major impact. If Trump does bad enough in New Hampshire, it could be possible that this could be the end of Trump being a viable candidate, but I don't think he'll drop out anytime soon.

In summation, I have the democratic-socialist winning on the left and the young and moderate conservative with momentum on the right. Because New Hampshire is full of independents that typically wait until the last couple of days to commit to a candidate, anything can change from the moment this post is uploaded to the moment the polls close tomorrow night. Here are my final rankings for New Hampshire's primaries.

Democratic Primary 

1. Bernie Sanders

2. Hillary Clinton

Republican Primary

1. Marco Rubio

2. Ted Cruz

3. Donald Trump

4. John Kasich

5. Jeb Bush

6. Chris Christie

7. Ben Carson

8. Carly Fiorina

9. Jim Gilmore

May the best win!

In Liberty,

Jacob Stech '18

Aftermath of the Iowa Caucuses

I decided to wait a week before I wrote my post-caucus analysis because I wanted to see what the prolonged effects of the Iowa caucuses would be. After the caucuses, four candidates dropped out of the race; while I correctly predicted two of them, the other two came as a complete surprise to me. Also, while I correctly predicted the winner of the Republican caucuses, I was not so lucky when it came to the Democratic caucuses though, which I expected. Here is my analysis below.

For the Republicans, I predicted that Ted Cruz would win Iowa, but I was surprised by how wrong the polls were leading up to the caucuses and how big of a lead Cruz won by. While I predicted that Donald Trump would not be able to rally his supporters to make them come to the caucuses, I was wrong when it came to how bad he would perform because of it; I predicted he would get fourth place while he actually got a very distant second. It is also important to note how well Marco Rubio did even though he finished in third; he outperformed in the state, beating expectation after expectation (including mine), and he almost beat out Trump for second place. Rand Paul under-performed in the state; he was expected to get at least 10,000 votes, but in the end, he only amassed 8,481 votes, which eventually caused him to make a shocking campaign suspension two days later. While I didn't get the order correct after Bush and Fiorina, I did predict correctly that it would be a jumble of non-Rubio establishment candidates and afterthoughts. When the caucuses ended, Mike Huckabee kept his "top three" promise and dropped out of the race. Rick Santorum took a couple days to reevaluate his campaign and decided to end his campaign altogether hours after Rand Paul ended his campaign. 

Last Wednesday, Donald Trump started to tweet that Ted Cruz had cheated his way to win the Iowa caucuses because of a CNN report that said Ben Carson was going to take a break after Iowa. Ted Cruz campaign staffers assumed that this meant he was dropping out, so they told their precinct chairs to tell Carson supporters that their candidate was ending the race and to vote for Ted Cruz instead. While I'm sure a few voters switched from Carson to Cruz, I don't believe that this was the reason that he won. I also believe that this was a genuine mistake on both the Carson and Cruz campaigns; the Carson campaign should have waited until after Iowa to announce this unusual change in plans, and the Cruz campaign should have waited to hear more before they made such a big assumption. I do not believe that any of the campaigns will try to challenge the results because of this. 

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton barely edged out Bernie Sanders by a thin margin of 0.25 points. The race was always expected to be close between these two, but I was not expecting it to be within this close of a margin. I believe this happened because Martin O'Malley's supporters moved to Bernie Sanders after their candidate did not get the 15% to have the viability to keep his votes; this eventually forced O'Malley to suspend his campaign while the votes (delegates) were still being counted. One controversial thing that happened was the fact that a coin toss eventually decided the allocation of state delegates in six precincts because of a tie. I do not agree that this should have been the way to fix this issue, and Bernie Sanders is currently challenging the results because of this, but I do not expect any major changes. 

In summation, Ted Cruz won even though he campaigned against ethanol subsidies, Hillary Clinton won by six coin tosses, and this race is still an unusual one. Nine Republicans and two Democrats remain. The New Hampshire primaries are tomorrow, and I will be posting my predictions for both parties' primaries later today. 

In Liberty,

Jacob Stech '18

2016 Iowa Caucuses Predictions: The Democrats

Earlier today, I decided that I would write my predictions out for each of the primaries and caucuses throughout the primary season. Here is my post on what I think will happen on the Democratic side tomorrow night in Iowa.

2016 Iowa Democratic Caucuses Predictions

In my last post, I predicted what would happen by going through each candidate, but I think it will be easier to predict the Democratic caucuses by just telling it all at once. 

It is important to know that in the last Iowa poll before the caucuses, Hillary Clinton only leads Bernie Sanders by three points (46% to 43%, I believe). This means that literally anything can happen tomorrow night. I think that the final result will be very close; it seriously could go either way. I personally think that Bernie Sanders will barely edge out Hillary Clinton. Here's why. Sanders' base is fired up, so I believe that there will be a high turnout of Sanders supporters along with a high turnout of loyal Hillary Clinton supporters. Oh, and we cannot forget about Martin O'Malley's supporters, who I think will play a larger role in the determination of who will win than they think they will. 

There is an interesting rule in the Democratic caucuses that goes like this: if a candidate does not gather 15% support in a precinct, the supporters are then released from supporting that candidate and are free to either choose another candidate or make themselves undeclared. I am confident that O'Malley's supporters will have to face a decision of supporting either Bernie or Hillary in multiple precincts tomorrow night. I also believe that most of these supporters will go to Bernie Sanders because O'Malley's supporters are looking for anybody but Hillary Clinton, so they are willing to go to Bernie before they go to Hillary. In regards to O'Malley possibly dropping out, I can see him doing so tomorrow night or Tuesday morning, but my prediction is that he will wait until after New Hampshire to do so. 

I believe that Hillary Clinton will ultimately lose the caucuses because she has been so wrapped up in having to defend scandal after scandal throughout the race so far, and I think that a lot of Democrats are very wary of trusting her to be in charge of an entire nation. If she can't use a government email or if she can't tell the truth about what happened in Benghazi, how can we trust her to make very important decisions. Her pending FBI investigation isn't helping, either. There is a chance that she could be indicted, and if that happens, her campaign is over. A lack of trust will ultimately produce a win for Bernie Sanders. 

Remember back in 2008 when a lesser-known Senator began his race to win the nomination over Hillary Clinton with a win in Iowa? I can easily see this happening again with Bernie Sanders this time around. We'll know for sure tomorrow night. 

In Liberty,
Jacob Stech '18

2016 Iowa Caucuses Predictions: The Republicans

Before each primary contest, I plan to post my predictions on how I think each contest will go. As this race has been more unpredictable than previous presidential elections already, something could happen between the moment this post is published and the caucuses themselves, so I will disclaim that these are my predictions as of Sunday afternoon on January 31st, 2016, the day before the caucuses occur. I will make edits only if something major happens.

I will go through each Republican candidate in alphabetical order, then I will rank them at the end of the post. I will then do the same for the Democratic candidates in a later post.

2016 Iowa Republican Caucuses Predictions

Jeb Bush

I believe that Jeb Bush will not perform well in Iowa for two reasons: there are multiple establishment candidates fighting for the same voters, and his campaign has focused more on New Hampshire, meaning the Iowa voters have not had as much exposure to the candidate as those in the Granite State have. I feel like he would be doing better as a whole if Donald Trump, who has attacked Bush more than any other candidate, was not present in the race. This was proven, in my opinion, when Jeb Bush shined in Thursday night's debate due to Trump's absence. Out of the four establishment candidates running (Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Jeb Bush), I am predicting that he will get second place in the establishment lane behind Rubio.

Ben Carson

This is a hard one to predict. Yes, Ben Carson has been spending most of his time in Iowa versus New Hampshire, but has his hard work payed off? He was doing really well in the fall until the media pummelled him into the afterthought category. While he still makes the main stage for the debates, he gets the least amount of speaking time. In the latest Des Moines Register poll that was released on Saturday night, Ben Carson is in fourth place with 10 percent. I believe that he has a unique and loyal group of voters, but I am not sure if he can gather more support with stronger evangelicals like Cruz still in the race and getting all of the media attention. He has said that if he does not place in the top three in two of the first four states, he will drop out of the race. There is a possibility that he can place in the top five, but it would be a miracle for the Carson campaign if he places in the top 3.

Chris Christie

Christie has the same problem as Jeb Bush has in Iowa: too many establishment candidates and a small presence in the state. Like Bush, Christie has concentrated his efforts in New Hampshire, but I have noticed that he has buffed up his presence in the Hawkeye State in the past week. While I feel like it is too little too late, it shows that he at least cares about the people of Iowa, even if it is just a little bit. Out of all of the establishment candidates, I predict that he will get the bronze medal behind Rubio and Bush.

Ted Cruz

While I am a Ted Cruz supporter, I will try my best not to insert my bias into this argument. However, I am going to predict right now that Ted Cruz will win Iowa, but not because I support him, but because the electorate of Iowa favors candidates like Cruz. Iowa Republicans are known to favor the evangelical and more conservative candidates rather than the establishment candidates. In 2008 and 2012, evangelical candidates and current afterthoughts Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum won the race and began to gain momentum nationwide throughout the other contests, but it was not enough for them to get the nomination in the end. I feel like Cruz has the ability to win Iowa, but I also feel like he has the ability to gain enough momentum to win the nomination. He has support from many different parts of the party, including the Tea Party, evangelicals, conservatives, libertarians that came from Rand Paul's campaign, and some younger voters. Also, I feel like he is the more sane alternative to Donald Trump. His broad party support (the Reagan Coalition) and his seriousness should be enough for him to win Iowa and maybe even the nomination. One thing to watch, though, is if his opposition to ethanol subsidies, a big issue in Iowa, causes him to not perform as well as some may hope.

Carly Fiorina

This is another hard candidate to predict. While she gained momentum after her amazing debate performances in August and September, she has started to slump nationwide, putting her back into the undercard debates from which she had rose from earlier. I honestly cannot figure out which faction of the party she is strongest in if any at all. I believe she is an outsider candidate who will perform poorly in the state of Iowa and slightly better in New Hampshire, but I wouldn't be surprised if she performs better than people are expecting. If she performs poorly, I predict that she will wait until after New Hampshire's results to decide if she will drop out or not.

Jim Gilmore

Very unknown candidate Jim Gilmore said during the last undercard debate that he chose to begin his campaign in the state of New Hampshire. Since he has not held any events in Iowa and has a very small campaign in New Hampshire. I would be absolutely shocked if he does not get last place in Iowa, and if he performs better than last place, I feel sorry for the candidate(s) that gather less votes than Gilmore. 

Mike Huckabee

Even though he won the Iowa Caucuses back in 2008, he has a very steep hill to climb if he wants to win it again, and I don't believe that he will make it to the top of this mountain. Ever since he made his transphobic joke about "showering with the girls" in P.E. class, his poll numbers have gotten poorer and poorer, eventually putting him in the undercard debates of which he has not been able to come back from. Not only do I believe he will perform very poorly in the caucuses, but I am boldly predicting that he will suspend his campaign as of Monday night or Tuesday morning to put his support behind Ted Cruz; he has already said that if he does not place in the top three in Iowa, he will drop out.

John Kasich

Kasich has the same problem as both Christie and Bush: too many establishment candidates and a small presence in Iowa. Not only does Kasich have a small presence in Iowa, it seems that he has skipped the state altogether; he has been campaigning in New Hampshire this weekend. I believe that he will perform rather poorly in Iowa, but because he is surging in New Hampshire right now (he is in second in most of the newest NH polls), I fully believe that his placement in Iowa will not affect his campaign that much. I also believe that he will perform last in the establishment category.

Rand Paul

Rand Paul has a loyal backing of college students, and I believe that Rand Paul will have a very strong showing in Iowa because of this. I believe that Rand Paul will outperform many of the other candidates and exceed expectations in the state. Ron Paul, Rand's father, ended up exceeding expectations and getting third place in 2012, and I believe that Rand could do the same; I wouldn't be surprised if he got more votes than Ben Carson in the final tally. One thing that will be interesting to watch is if libertarians tend to vote more for Ted Cruz or Rand Paul. Ted Cruz has successfully taken some of Rand Paul's former support, including myself, and I believe that others have probably followed suit due to how Rand has not been able to excite the libertarian base as his father was able to back in 2012. Hopefully tonight's Rand Paul/Ron Paul rally will excite the base to the needed levels.

Marco Rubio

Marco might be one of the establishment candidates, but I believe he has the best chance out of the rest of the candidates in his lane to perform well in the state. He stands out because of his young age and his positive message. He also stands out because he has found the time to focus both on Iowa and New Hampshire, unlike Bush, Christie, and Kasich. While establishment moderates are not part of a huge bloc in Iowa as in New Hampshire, there are still some out there, and I believe Rubio will win the establishment fight tomorrow night at the caucuses, maybe pulling out a second, third, or fourth place win overall.

Rick Santorum

Rick Santorum has the same problem as Mike Huckabee: sagging poll numbers despite being the most recent winner of the caucuses. Santorum has not been able to get on the main stage, meaning that his message has not been able to get to the American people as well as it did back in 2012. Because of this, he has become an afterthought in the state, and I expect him to perform poorly in Iowa and I expect him to drop out as of Monday night or Tuesday morning, just like Huckabee, and endorse Cruz, just like Huckabee.

Donald Trump

Boy, do I have a lot to say about this one. Donald Trump has been able to somehow fight his way to the top of the polls despite being the most bold and divisive candidate that I have ever seen in any race since I became interested in politics. Despite talking about banning Muslims, calling illegal immigrants rapists, and joking about shooting someone on a busy New York street, he has been able to gather the most attention out of any candidate. He has even called the people of Iowa stupid for considering Dr. Ben Carson at all. He even skipped the last debate, which in my opinion shows that he does not care about the people of Iowa enough to put himself in front of Megyn Kelly again. In the last poll before the caucuses, Donald Trump placed in first with 28% while leading Cruz, who had 23% in that poll. Since I have placed Cruz in my top picks to win the state, that means that I believe Trump will not win the state despite the latest polls. Here's why I think that. I know that Donald Trump's Iowa ground game is very bad; they do not canvass in any way as far as I know, and their phone-banking seems to be calling mostly Bernie Sanders supporters or voters who have little to no history of voting. They are relying too much on media coverage and voter excitement, and I believe this will hurt him in the end. Heck, on Meet the Press this morning, they talked to Trump supporters who said that it would be too much work for them to go to the caucuses and support Trump. Because of this, I believe that Trump will underperform by a lot, which could put him in a bad place entering New Hampshire. The state of Iowa could be known as the state where Donald Trump's campaign began to derail.

Final Rankings:

1. Ted Cruz

2. Marco Rubio 

3. Rand Paul 

4. Donald Trump

5. Ben Carson

6. Jeb Bush 

7. Carly Fiorina

8. Mike Huckabee

9. Chris Christie 

10. Rick Santorum

11. John Kasich

12. Jim Gilmore 

I have some bold predictions in here, especially my third and fourth place picks. While this race has been unpredictable, I felt like I could pick an unpredictable move like this and maybe be right. Either way, we'll find out tomorrow night starting at 8pm EST. 

In Liberty,

Jacob Stech '18