Before each primary contest, I plan to post my predictions on how I think each contest will go. As this race has been more unpredictable than previous presidential elections already, something could happen between the moment this post is published and the caucuses themselves, so I will disclaim that these are my predictions as of Sunday afternoon on January 31st, 2016, the day before the caucuses occur. I will make edits only if something major happens.
I will go through each Republican candidate in alphabetical order, then I will rank them at the end of the post. I will then do the same for the Democratic candidates in a later post.
2016 Iowa Republican Caucuses Predictions
Jeb Bush
I believe that Jeb Bush will not perform well in Iowa for two reasons: there are multiple establishment candidates fighting for the same voters, and his campaign has focused more on New Hampshire, meaning the Iowa voters have not had as much exposure to the candidate as those in the Granite State have. I feel like he would be doing better as a whole if Donald Trump, who has attacked Bush more than any other candidate, was not present in the race. This was proven, in my opinion, when Jeb Bush shined in Thursday night's debate due to Trump's absence. Out of the four establishment candidates running (Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Jeb Bush), I am predicting that he will get second place in the establishment lane behind Rubio.
Ben Carson
This is a hard one to predict. Yes, Ben Carson has been spending most of his time in Iowa versus New Hampshire, but has his hard work payed off? He was doing really well in the fall until the media pummelled him into the afterthought category. While he still makes the main stage for the debates, he gets the least amount of speaking time. In the latest Des Moines Register poll that was released on Saturday night, Ben Carson is in fourth place with 10 percent. I believe that he has a unique and loyal group of voters, but I am not sure if he can gather more support with stronger evangelicals like Cruz still in the race and getting all of the media attention. He has said that if he does not place in the top three in two of the first four states, he will drop out of the race. There is a possibility that he can place in the top five, but it would be a miracle for the Carson campaign if he places in the top 3.
Chris Christie
Christie has the same problem as Jeb Bush has in Iowa: too many establishment candidates and a small presence in the state. Like Bush, Christie has concentrated his efforts in New Hampshire, but I have noticed that he has buffed up his presence in the Hawkeye State in the past week. While I feel like it is too little too late, it shows that he at least cares about the people of Iowa, even if it is just a little bit. Out of all of the establishment candidates, I predict that he will get the bronze medal behind Rubio and Bush.
Ted Cruz
While I am a Ted Cruz supporter, I will try my best not to insert my bias into this argument. However, I am going to predict right now that Ted Cruz will win Iowa, but not because I support him, but because the electorate of Iowa favors candidates like Cruz. Iowa Republicans are known to favor the evangelical and more conservative candidates rather than the establishment candidates. In 2008 and 2012, evangelical candidates and current afterthoughts Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum won the race and began to gain momentum nationwide throughout the other contests, but it was not enough for them to get the nomination in the end. I feel like Cruz has the ability to win Iowa, but I also feel like he has the ability to gain enough momentum to win the nomination. He has support from many different parts of the party, including the Tea Party, evangelicals, conservatives, libertarians that came from Rand Paul's campaign, and some younger voters. Also, I feel like he is the more sane alternative to Donald Trump. His broad party support (the Reagan Coalition) and his seriousness should be enough for him to win Iowa and maybe even the nomination. One thing to watch, though, is if his opposition to ethanol subsidies, a big issue in Iowa, causes him to not perform as well as some may hope.
Carly Fiorina
This is another hard candidate to predict. While she gained momentum after her amazing debate performances in August and September, she has started to slump nationwide, putting her back into the undercard debates from which she had rose from earlier. I honestly cannot figure out which faction of the party she is strongest in if any at all. I believe she is an outsider candidate who will perform poorly in the state of Iowa and slightly better in New Hampshire, but I wouldn't be surprised if she performs better than people are expecting. If she performs poorly, I predict that she will wait until after New Hampshire's results to decide if she will drop out or not.
Jim Gilmore
Very unknown candidate Jim Gilmore said during the last undercard debate that he chose to begin his campaign in the state of New Hampshire. Since he has not held any events in Iowa and has a very small campaign in New Hampshire. I would be absolutely shocked if he does not get last place in Iowa, and if he performs better than last place, I feel sorry for the candidate(s) that gather less votes than Gilmore.
Mike Huckabee
Even though he won the Iowa Caucuses back in 2008, he has a very steep hill to climb if he wants to win it again, and I don't believe that he will make it to the top of this mountain. Ever since he made his transphobic joke about "showering with the girls" in P.E. class, his poll numbers have gotten poorer and poorer, eventually putting him in the undercard debates of which he has not been able to come back from. Not only do I believe he will perform very poorly in the caucuses, but I am boldly predicting that he will suspend his campaign as of Monday night or Tuesday morning to put his support behind Ted Cruz; he has already said that if he does not place in the top three in Iowa, he will drop out.
John Kasich
Kasich has the same problem as both Christie and Bush: too many establishment candidates and a small presence in Iowa. Not only does Kasich have a small presence in Iowa, it seems that he has skipped the state altogether; he has been campaigning in New Hampshire this weekend. I believe that he will perform rather poorly in Iowa, but because he is surging in New Hampshire right now (he is in second in most of the newest NH polls), I fully believe that his placement in Iowa will not affect his campaign that much. I also believe that he will perform last in the establishment category.
Rand Paul
Rand Paul has a loyal backing of college students, and I believe that Rand Paul will have a very strong showing in Iowa because of this. I believe that Rand Paul will outperform many of the other candidates and exceed expectations in the state. Ron Paul, Rand's father, ended up exceeding expectations and getting third place in 2012, and I believe that Rand could do the same; I wouldn't be surprised if he got more votes than Ben Carson in the final tally. One thing that will be interesting to watch is if libertarians tend to vote more for Ted Cruz or Rand Paul. Ted Cruz has successfully taken some of Rand Paul's former support, including myself, and I believe that others have probably followed suit due to how Rand has not been able to excite the libertarian base as his father was able to back in 2012. Hopefully tonight's Rand Paul/Ron Paul rally will excite the base to the needed levels.
Marco Rubio
Marco might be one of the establishment candidates, but I believe he has the best chance out of the rest of the candidates in his lane to perform well in the state. He stands out because of his young age and his positive message. He also stands out because he has found the time to focus both on Iowa and New Hampshire, unlike Bush, Christie, and Kasich. While establishment moderates are not part of a huge bloc in Iowa as in New Hampshire, there are still some out there, and I believe Rubio will win the establishment fight tomorrow night at the caucuses, maybe pulling out a second, third, or fourth place win overall.
Rick Santorum
Rick Santorum has the same problem as Mike Huckabee: sagging poll numbers despite being the most recent winner of the caucuses. Santorum has not been able to get on the main stage, meaning that his message has not been able to get to the American people as well as it did back in 2012. Because of this, he has become an afterthought in the state, and I expect him to perform poorly in Iowa and I expect him to drop out as of Monday night or Tuesday morning, just like Huckabee, and endorse Cruz, just like Huckabee.
Donald Trump
Boy, do I have a lot to say about this one. Donald Trump has been able to somehow fight his way to the top of the polls despite being the most bold and divisive candidate that I have ever seen in any race since I became interested in politics. Despite talking about banning Muslims, calling illegal immigrants rapists, and joking about shooting someone on a busy New York street, he has been able to gather the most attention out of any candidate. He has even called the people of Iowa stupid for considering Dr. Ben Carson at all. He even skipped the last debate, which in my opinion shows that he does not care about the people of Iowa enough to put himself in front of Megyn Kelly again. In the last poll before the caucuses, Donald Trump placed in first with 28% while leading Cruz, who had 23% in that poll. Since I have placed Cruz in my top picks to win the state, that means that I believe Trump will not win the state despite the latest polls. Here's why I think that. I know that Donald Trump's Iowa ground game is very bad; they do not canvass in any way as far as I know, and their phone-banking seems to be calling mostly Bernie Sanders supporters or voters who have little to no history of voting. They are relying too much on media coverage and voter excitement, and I believe this will hurt him in the end. Heck, on Meet the Press this morning, they talked to Trump supporters who said that it would be too much work for them to go to the caucuses and support Trump. Because of this, I believe that Trump will underperform by a lot, which could put him in a bad place entering New Hampshire. The state of Iowa could be known as the state where Donald Trump's campaign began to derail.
Final Rankings:
1. Ted Cruz
2. Marco Rubio
3. Rand Paul
4. Donald Trump
5. Ben Carson
6. Jeb Bush
7. Carly Fiorina
8. Mike Huckabee
9. Chris Christie
10. Rick Santorum
11. John Kasich
12. Jim Gilmore
I have some bold predictions in here, especially my third and fourth place picks. While this race has been unpredictable, I felt like I could pick an unpredictable move like this and maybe be right. Either way, we'll find out tomorrow night starting at 8pm EST.
In Liberty,
Jacob Stech '18
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