2016 Iowa Caucuses Predictions: The Democrats

Earlier today, I decided that I would write my predictions out for each of the primaries and caucuses throughout the primary season. Here is my post on what I think will happen on the Democratic side tomorrow night in Iowa.

2016 Iowa Democratic Caucuses Predictions

In my last post, I predicted what would happen by going through each candidate, but I think it will be easier to predict the Democratic caucuses by just telling it all at once. 

It is important to know that in the last Iowa poll before the caucuses, Hillary Clinton only leads Bernie Sanders by three points (46% to 43%, I believe). This means that literally anything can happen tomorrow night. I think that the final result will be very close; it seriously could go either way. I personally think that Bernie Sanders will barely edge out Hillary Clinton. Here's why. Sanders' base is fired up, so I believe that there will be a high turnout of Sanders supporters along with a high turnout of loyal Hillary Clinton supporters. Oh, and we cannot forget about Martin O'Malley's supporters, who I think will play a larger role in the determination of who will win than they think they will. 

There is an interesting rule in the Democratic caucuses that goes like this: if a candidate does not gather 15% support in a precinct, the supporters are then released from supporting that candidate and are free to either choose another candidate or make themselves undeclared. I am confident that O'Malley's supporters will have to face a decision of supporting either Bernie or Hillary in multiple precincts tomorrow night. I also believe that most of these supporters will go to Bernie Sanders because O'Malley's supporters are looking for anybody but Hillary Clinton, so they are willing to go to Bernie before they go to Hillary. In regards to O'Malley possibly dropping out, I can see him doing so tomorrow night or Tuesday morning, but my prediction is that he will wait until after New Hampshire to do so. 

I believe that Hillary Clinton will ultimately lose the caucuses because she has been so wrapped up in having to defend scandal after scandal throughout the race so far, and I think that a lot of Democrats are very wary of trusting her to be in charge of an entire nation. If she can't use a government email or if she can't tell the truth about what happened in Benghazi, how can we trust her to make very important decisions. Her pending FBI investigation isn't helping, either. There is a chance that she could be indicted, and if that happens, her campaign is over. A lack of trust will ultimately produce a win for Bernie Sanders. 

Remember back in 2008 when a lesser-known Senator began his race to win the nomination over Hillary Clinton with a win in Iowa? I can easily see this happening again with Bernie Sanders this time around. We'll know for sure tomorrow night. 

In Liberty,
Jacob Stech '18