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Thursday, August 17, 2017

My Condemnation of President Trump



Note: This post is a copy of a Facebook post that I wrote about an hour after Donald Trump's disastrous press conference in which he walked back his scripted Monday response to the domestic terrorist attack in Charlottesville, where one person was killed in a protest and two policemen were killed in a helicopter crash while responding to the protests. 

I just listened to Donald Trump walk back his comments from yesterday and show his true colors. He's now back to saying that both sides are at fault.

I condemn the actions of the KKK. I condemn Nazis. I condemn white supremacists. I condemn racists.

I condemn the president for not condemning these same things.

I'm done with this president. I also apologize to everyone for voting for this president. I can no longer support a president who will not denounce white supremacists for their ugly and disgusting thoughts. I can't support a president who would rather defend Nazis and racists than represent his country by using his common sense and denouncing them. Mr. President, I can assure you that as of now, you will not be getting my vote in 2020.

I apologize to everyone for helping to elect a morally insensitive man to the most powerful position in the world. I apologize to all of my friends for saying "it'll be okay" and "let's give him a chance." Well, I've given him a chance, and it's pretty obvious that things are not okay. My heart hurts for those who feel victimized by the president's actions. I feel bad that I have to tell my kids in the future that I voted for him.

I'm not changing parties, but I do want to change the way that this country thinks. I want to help elect leaders from both parties that want to bring America back from all of the negativity that has happened over the past few months. I'm sick of how negative, dirty, and divisive American political talk has become. I want to bring American politics back to what it used to be about: the issues and what brings us together.

I miss President Barack Obama. I honestly never thought I would say that. I hope we can recover from this. I really do.

Thursday, May 25, 2017

Have We Become Numb to Terrorism?

Image result for ariana grande manchester ribbon

It seems like terrorism happens too often for us to keep up with it anymore. It's actually really sad.

On Monday, May 22nd, after I had arrived home from a busy day at my internship, I got a notification on my phone that really worried me. Now, I can't remember a day within these past few months that a news notification didn't worry the crap out of me, but this one was concerning. Of course, my mind went straight to "Oh no, this is another terrorist attack", but I wanted to tell myself that it wasn't the case. I wanted to believe that ISIS wasn't able to pull off yet another devastating attack that took the lives of innocent people. I wanted to believe that everybody was going to be okay and that maybe the article was a piece of "fake news" or the explosion was actually something else. I should've stuck with my first instinct.

As more information started leaking out, I was saddened to hear that 22 people had died and 59 people had been injured in some way (as of Friday, May 26th). I was relieved to hear that Ariana Grande herself was safe, but then I realized the demographic that her music appeals most to: younger girls. The majority of the victims had been young girls who just wanted to have fun at a concert. For many of them, it was probably their first experience at a concert. Even those young ones who survived the attack without a scratch will probably have nightmares for months after experiencing the chaos that happened that day.

But what surprised me even more was not what happened, but what didn't happen. Usually, after any large world event, good or bad, I would see a lot of activity on my Facebook feed regarding the event. Now, I did see a lot of action on Twitter, but I had to seek out the correct hashtags and keywords to see it. My Facebook friends or the people that I follow on Twitter (not including news accounts) did not seem to care about what had taken place. There was basically utter silence. It was shocking. But then I thought: have we become so used to terrorist attacks and the normal cycle of events that we just don't care anymore? Have we become numb to terrorism?

The media used to spend a lot of time on these events when they first began to happen. When the Virginia Tech massacre happened, it was the top story for weeks on end. But now, especially within the past year or so, the coverage of these events disappears within the next day or so, even in instances where massive attacks occur. It seems like the media, along with the people, have gotten used to the cycle so much that they feel that they don't need to cover it as much anymore.

Here's that inevitable series of events that I'm talking about. Obviously it starts with the event itself occurring and it is followed with the fast leaking of new information, including the number of victims and the finding of who committed the act of violence. Then we find out that the perpetrator had a history of radicalization. Then the debates start about whether to have stricter gun laws or whether to limit Syrian refugee immigration to the country or whether the United States should declare war on the Islamic State, or ISIS.

I TOTALLY understand why people get sick and tired of it all, as it just adds to the problems of partisanship and lack of unity that I have stressed about before. But we cannot just sit here and let it happen again. And again. And again.

If we just sit here and let the cycle continue, it gives off an impression to the terrorists that we tolerate the events and that we are totally okay with letting more attacks happen, even though that is not necessarily the case. If we ignore the events happening around us, we are closing ourselves in and not letting ourselves be educated on what is happening around the world so that we can be prepared for anything. By doing nothing, we let the terrorists win, and we give them permission to do it again.

If we want to stop living in this cycle, we need to bring more attention to what happened so that more people know what is going on. We also need to educate people about the religion of Islam and tell people how it isn't the entire religion that allows for these types of events to happen, but it is only a small fraction of followers that twist the words of their scripture to justify killing children and other innocent people. We also need to work to agree on what the main problem is and how we can find a set solution to the problem. If the proposed solution doesn't work, then we reevaluate.

Another point I want to make is something that Former President Barack Obama hit on in a speech in Berlin on Thursday. He made the point that there are people "who would do great harm to others just because they are different." He also hopes that as an ex-president, he will have more time to help young people become better leaders "so that we can marginalize those who would try to divide us" through acts such as these. This is a big reason why I wanted to write this post. I want people to read this and hope that they will speak out against injustices and become inspired to try and fix the bonds that divide us as a nation. We live in such a partisan time right now that it might seem like this is impossible, but it really isn't; we will never know unless we try.

I can get very political about the issue and talk about any of the debates above, or how the $110 billion arms deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia was a bad idea and how a lot of these weapons will go to terrorist organizations to commit more terrorist acts. I can also talk about how the mainstream media wrongly talks about Islam as being a horrible religion that allows these acts to happen, but I can save these issues for another post if need be. This post is just meant to address how and why we need to be more aware of the events, and I do not want to get into the policy bits in any way at the moment.

When I initially thought about writing this post, I wanted to shape it around the classic John Lennon song, Imagine. I wanted to talk about imagining a world where one's religion, country of origin, or possessions do not create hate, but I've gotten to the point where imagining a world where people are living life in peace is impossible. Now I am a dreamer, and I know I'm not the only one, and I wish I could hope someday that others would want to join me in wanting to live as one, but we've lived too long in a world with partisanship and hate and racial injustice for that to ever become a true reality. But we can still work towards a goal like that, as every little act of kindness can get us closer to a world like the one I described.

The question still needs to be asked: are we too numb to care about terrorism anymore, or can we get together and figure out ways to prevent these acts and the heartbreak that usually follows? I know that we will never be able to end terrorism completely as it has been a thing since the beginning of time, but being able to prevent more attacks from happening would definitely be an accomplishment. At this point, all we can do as citizens is educate ourselves and others. We need to care about what is going on so that we can accurately judge those in Washington who will eventually make the hard policy decisions.

Keep educating yourself and others. Keep caring. Keep our representatives in check. The world can be a better place if we do these things and more. Let me know if I need to elaborate on any points or if anything is confusing, as I know terrorism is a complicated issue.

In Liberty,
Jacob Stech '18

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Kiss a Democrat, Hug a Republican (A Call For Unity NOW!)

Image result for donald trump inauguration

I know everyone is getting tired of the political posts on their timelines, but this one is really important. Like, REALLY important.

Something is up. And it's bad.

POTUS #44 Barack Obama has ended his term and POTUS #45 Donald Trump has been sworn in, but something is blocking me (a right-leaning Libertarian who supported Trump) from being totally happy about it.

It's the fact that the country is so divided right now.

I completely get it. President Donald Trump said some nasty things during the campaign that turned a lot of people off. In fact, I stopped supporting him for a brief period after that haunting Access Hollywood video came out. Even though I had supported him since the end of May 2016 after he clinched the nomination, even that turned me off from him for a while. But then I thought about it a couple weeks after that video and decided to cast my vote based off of policy and not personality.

I completely understand why people are mad about Hillary winning the popular vote but not the presidency. People are angry that we won't have a female president for four years, and while I didn't support her candidacy, I myself want to see a woman in the White House someday.

But enough about electoral politics, because that's not why I decided to write this article.

I decided to write this article because I've noticed something really bad. It's that the political tension in the air has reached an all-new level. Though I've already explained above a little bit of why that is, now I want to offer the biggest olive branch ever.

We, as Americans, need to unify, and we need to do so NOW. 

Let me explain a little why I feel this way and what I mean.

So I had the opportunity to attend the 58th Presidential Inauguration and it was easily one of the best days of my life, but when I was there, there was an uneasy feeling. My dad and I were in the silver ticket area, which was not too close but not too far. There was a great view of the stage and a screen that showed exactly what the viewers at home were watching. About an hour before the swearing-in ceremony began, the past presidents, first ladies, and other dignitaries were coming in. When former first lady Hillary Clinton appeared on the screen, things got ugly. Everybody around us started jeering and booing her into oblivion. I'm not sure if those at home could hear it, but it was very loud around us. It became obvious that the stereotypical Trump supporters were not ready to let go of the fact that she lost when they started chanting "Lock her up, lock her up..." Then the booing got worse as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi showed up and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer spoke; it got so bad that I couldn't hear half of what he was talking about over the insults and boos.

Let me make it clear that I may not agree with some of the politics of Clinton and Pelosi and Schumer, but I at least respect them as people. I respect all peaceful Democrats and Republicans alike as people, even if I don't agree with their political views.

The beginning of a new administration is kind of like the beginning of a new year: it is a perfect time for the country to get a fresh start and for people to promise to follow new political habits. I want to start this administration by promising to listen to the other side and root for them when they do things that I agree with, like when they enforce their free speech rights at the Women's March on Washington. I respect those who took part in that historic march, and I want people to continue to voice their opinions whether I agree with them or not.

Unification means we need to tolerate one another and not attack them when they voice an opinion that is against yours. It doesn't mean we all have to share the same views; it's obvious that will NEVER happen.

Unification means we need to put electoral politics aside and focus on helping the new administration govern. Let's end the 'Lock Her Up' talk and focus on getting along with each other and moving an agenda forward that the American people can agree on.

Unification means we need to stop the violence. Stop breaking things. Stop looting Starbucks and breaking their windows. Stop punching people as they are being interviewed on live television, even if they share very radical views.

Unification means when people are trying to scream words of dissent at you in order to shut you up, it means you keep talking. Try to get them to listen to you. If you are the dissenter, listen to them. It's surprising how much you will actually agree with each other if you start listening and getting along.

Unification means knowing that we are all in this together. Whatever happens these next four years and beyond, we are ONE country. ONE nation under God.

Former President Barack Obama said in a speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2004 that "there is not a liberal America and a conservative America, there is the United States of America."

President Donald Trump said in his inaugural speech that "when America is united, America is totally unstoppable."

Now, I know I can't ever achieve world peace. I will never be able to get everyone in the world to agree with each other and tolerate each other, but I want to get the ball rolling for the generations ahead. Let's show that we are not the generation of political divisiveness and that we are the generation of toleration. Let's get started. As Stephen Colbert famously said during his election night coverage, don't be afraid to kiss a Democrat or hug a Republican. Let's put the hate behind us and let's all be kind to each other.

If I think of other ways we can unite, I will edit this article as need be. I will also be open to political debate, as it allows me to start on my new resolution for the new administration as explained above.

Thank you for taking the time to read this, and as always, be a positive force.

In Liberty,
Jacob Stech

Thursday, May 26, 2016

My Endorsement of Donald J. Trump



The time is finally here.

There are many reasons why I decided against supporting Donald Trump in the Republican primaries. At first, he turned me off during his gaffe-filled summer in which he called illegal immigrants rapists and denounced John McCain as a war hero because "he had been captured", neither of which stopped his campaign. I distanced myself even further when he announced that he wanted to ban all Muslims from coming into the United States. I even wanted to leave the Republican Party after the same man who had previously said that women should be punished for having abortions won the nomination in Indiana.

But then I thought about it. And thought about it. And thought about it a little more.

And I remembered that I promised to support the eventual Republican nominee, and I will not break this promise.

And I figured out that the mainstream media likes to twist Donald Trump's words because they are trying to rig the election for Hillary Clinton. He said his abortion comments because he was asked what he would do if abortion were to be illegal, so it makes sense that he would say that those associated with it should be punished. Because it would be ILLEGAL.

And I figured out that we need to do anything to stop Hillary Clinton, even if that is voting for an "orange-faced windbag" such as Mr. Trump (Sen. Rand Paul's words, not mine).

Hillary Clinton cannot be the next President because she has shown time and time again that she cannot be trusted. Just yesterday, the State Department said that she violated the rules when she used her personal server instead of the government issued email address she should have used. Also, look at the other numerous messes she got herself into throughout her life, such as the Benghazi incident, the Whitewater scandal, and the Wall Street speeches she won't release. Having her run this country for the next four to eight years would be a huge mistake.

We need Donald Trump in the White House because we need somebody who actually cares about our country, even if he might be a little unpredictable from time to time with his comments. We need somebody who will nominate a conservative Supreme Court Justice; if we leave this to Hillary, the Supreme Court will be liberal for a few generations. We need someone who is a proven leader who has run a successful business.

I have been reading excerpts from his newest book, Crippled America: How to Make America Great Again, and I can see that Donald Trump is actually serious about becoming President. He can take our country out of the hole that we are in now, and he can make us prosper, but only if we work as a team. Donald Trump is running for President because he cares about the people of our country, while Hillary only cares about herself and her political career.

Donald Trump's policies also aren't THAT bad. While his position on free trade doesn't necessarily fall within the party's platform, he shows that he wants to keep jobs in America rather than in China or in the European Union. While he may have controversial policies such as building a wall on the Mexican border or banning Muslims from coming into the country, I can assure you that while a wall MAY happen, a Muslim ban is not going to pass through Congress, even if Trump works with a Republican majority. Also, Trump is starting to change his mind on the Muslim position, which is really good because I do not support that at all. And the wall isn't THAT bad of an idea.

The Republican Party needs to unify around a common goal of defeating Hillary Clinton. I know that Donald Trump is not the candidate that most of the party wanted, but I would rather have him in the White House versus Hillary Clinton. While it may take some people longer than others to decide what they will do once November rolls around, I want people to remember these next few sentences if they are undecided.

A vote for a third party candidate is a vote for Hillary Clinton.

A vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote for Hillary Clinton (obviously).

Not voting at all is a vote for Hillary Clinton.

The only way to assure that Hillary Clinton does not step anywhere near the White House is to cast a vote for Donald J. Trump.

I do have one condition, though. If a viable third-party candidate steps up to the plate, like Mitt Romney or another conservative that has a legitimate chance of beating both candidates, then I may reconsider voting for Donald Trump. But the odds of this happening are very slim, and like I said, a third party candidate will only take votes away from Trump, making sure that Hillary wins.

I wish everyone luck in deciding what to do, but consider this post when doing so.

Let's Make America Great Again,
Jacob Stech '18

Friday, May 6, 2016

Current State of the Race: My Struggle



I am finally back.

So my college life has completely taken over since I last posted about my predictions for the New Hampshire primary. I have finally found a spare moment where I can finally update everything on the website, and I hope to post more now that the general election is coming up. As everyone already knows, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders won those races with 'yuge' landslides.

Now that the Republican primary is over and the Democratic Primary is wrapping up, it is time to look at the general election in a realistic light. Donald Trump, much to most people's dismay, has won the Republican nomination, and it looks like Hillary Clinton will clinch the nomination from Bernie Sanders on June 14th. So we are now looking at a Trump vs. Clinton election, and I cannot be more confused as to what to do.

I have been posting rapidly on Facebook the past couple days abut my struggle of whether I can support Donald Trump in the general election. I have decided to take a backseat for now and wait until he picks a Vice Presidential running mate before I make a final decision as to whether I will support him. But here's the thing. While I am not sure if I will support Donald Trump, I am 100% sure that I will not be casting a ballot for Hillary Clinton because she has shown that she is untrustworthy and that she will say or do anything to become President of the United States. And I will never let that happen. So, as you can see, I am a member of the #NeverHillary movement.
But while I was a member of the #NeverTrump movement during the primary season, am I ready to revoke my membership just yet?

Here are the questions I and most other Republicans need to ask ourselves: Do I hate Hillary Clinton enough to vote for Donald Trump? Am I aware that voting third-party or not voting at all gives the election to Hillary Clinton, who I KNOW will be a horrible president, rather than giving it to Donald Trump, who only MIGHT be bad? Am I ready to support someone who has shown a history of being unpredictable and unapologetic over someone who is untrustworthy and corrupt?

If I have to make an honest statement, here it is. I am currently leaning towards supporting the Donald, but I am not ready to make it 100% official until he picks a Vice President that can get rid of the craziness of the presumptive Republican nominee. Also, we need to look at policy over personality, and as of right now, Donald Trump is more favorable. in my opinion, in that standard.

I wish everyone luck in their struggle, and I hope we can get through this dumpster fire of a general election in one piece.

In Liberty,
Jacob Stech '18

P.S. While I was wrapping this up, Lindsay Graham just announced that he will not be supporting either candidate in November. Thanks for making this decision just a little bit harder.

Monday, February 8, 2016

2016 New Hampshire Primary Predictions: Democrats and Republicans


New Hampshire Democratic Primary 2016 Predictions

Every single NH poll since before the Iowa caucuses has put Bernie Sanders ahead of Hillary Clinton by leads of 20 points or more. I predict that Bernie Sanders will beat Hillary Clinton tomorrow night, but I think it will only be by a 10 point margin or less. Polls tend to create stories of major leads that don't exist, and I feel like this race will have the same result. Despite critics saying Hillary Clinton should skip New Hampshire completely due to the major lead Sanders has in the state, she has stayed in the state and trying to eat away at his lead the best she can. I think that she will eat away at his lead, but not by too much because Bernie is extremely popular in the state that neighbors his home state of Vermont. 

New Hampshire Republican Primary 2016 Predictions

For this contest, I will go by candidate since it is the easiest way to go. 

Jeb Bush

Jeb Bush's entire campaign has put its trust on the voters of the Granite State. If he does not do well in the state, he might as well drop out of the race completely. Personally, I feel like he is slowly becoming an afterthought, and a poor performance in the state will all but finish his chances of becoming President. The famous "Please clap." meme isn't helping, either. My prediction for Bush #3 is that the establishment race will be won by Rubio and the remaining establishment candidates (Bush, Christie, and Kasich) will be really close in the rankings. Unless Marco Rubio completely blows the other candidates out of the water, expect Bush to stay in the race with the help of his SuperPAC, Right to Rise. 

Ben Carson

Carson is an afterthought in this state. During my New Hampshire trip, he did not visit the state at all. He had spent all of his time in Iowa to protect the decent numbers that he would eventually get in the Hawkeye State. I expect Carson to do horribly in NH, but I expect him to wait until South Carolina before dropping out of the race completely to see if this primary can revive his flailing campaign. 

Chris Christie

As said earlier, expect a fight between Christie, Bush, and Kasich behind Rubio. I expect the New Jersey governor to do better here than he did in Iowa, but if he does poorly in this state, he will drop out tomorrow night or soon after. 

Ted Cruz

Again, I am not saying Ted Cruz will do decently well because I am a supporter of his, but I believe he will beat expectations in the state. Being a volunteer of Cruz's New Hampshire efforts, I believe that Cruz has one of the best ground games of the entire campaign; the campaign headquarters is always busy doing something to spread Ted Cruz's message. However, I am unsure if the Carson/Cruz controversy in Iowa will hurt his chances in the Granite State. I know for a fact that his NH staffers would never do what his campaign did in Iowa, but the damage might already be done. I expect Cruz to possibly get second or third place in New Hampshire. If he gets third place, I believe it will be because one of the establishment candidates other than Rubio broke through, not because of Donald Trump. I expect him to do better than what the polls are saying because I expect most of Rand Paul's voters to go to Cruz because he is the most like Paul when it comes to his message of liberty. This will definitely be enough to exceed expectations, but I doubt it will be enough to win the primary altogether because the rest of the electorate favors the establishment candidates such as Rubio, Kasich, Christie, and Bush. 

Carly Fiorina

Sadly, I do not see a path for her to win the primary nor the nomination. ABC snubbed her out of the debate right before New Hampshire, and I believe this will have the same effects as Iowa when it came to Trump and him skipping the debate. She will most likely perform poorly in the state and I expect her to drop out tomorrow night or soon after. 

Jim Gilmore

The achievement of 12 votes in Iowa was enough to get Jim Gilmore energized for New Hampshire, where he says his campaign will do very well despite not being known by most of the country. I am currently unsure if he will wait until Virginia's primary to drop out, but I fully expect him to get last place in Tuesday's primary. I would not be surprised at all if he decided to end his campaign tomorrow night or soon after, much like Fiorina. 

John Kasich

See Christie and Bush. I believe John Kasich has the best chance of being the "breakout" establishment candidate; this is because while I was phone-banking, I got a lot of Kasich supporters, but this could have been by complete chance. I also believe his positive message will resonate with voters better than Christie's and Bush's less positive ones. Even if Kasich performs very poorly, I expect him to stay a little longer until the Ohio primary (March 15th) where he could get a boost in delegates due to his position as the current governor of the state. 

Marco Rubio

I believe Marco Rubio has the best chance of winning this primary overall. His impressive third place finish in Iowa created a big boost of momentum. Throughout the past week, Rubio has received many endorsements, including those of Rick Santorum and Tim Scott. Also, Marco Rubio has been able to appeal to young voters who are not already with Ted Cruz or on the other side of the party line with Bernie Sanders. It is unclear if his mediocre debate performance on Saturday hurt his chances of winning, but nevertheless, if Marco Rubio can secure a big win here, it could possibly propel him far enough to win the nomination. 

Donald Trump 

Just like in Iowa, I do not believe a lot of Trump's voters will actually go out and vote for him. Even though most of the New Hampshire polls have him leading by double digits, I believe that he will end up getting second or third place because he has not done well in the state when it comes to ground game and voter turnout. His phone-banking system calls mostly Bernie supporters and those who do not have a history of voting, and while I was in the state, they did absolutely no door-knocking whatsoever, which is a very important part of a traditional campaign. It is possible that the Trump campaign fixed some of these problems after his horrible performance in Iowa, but I believe it is too late for those changes to make any major impact. If Trump does bad enough in New Hampshire, it could be possible that this could be the end of Trump being a viable candidate, but I don't think he'll drop out anytime soon.

In summation, I have the democratic-socialist winning on the left and the young and moderate conservative with momentum on the right. Because New Hampshire is full of independents that typically wait until the last couple of days to commit to a candidate, anything can change from the moment this post is uploaded to the moment the polls close tomorrow night. Here are my final rankings for New Hampshire's primaries.

Democratic Primary 

1. Bernie Sanders
2. Hillary Clinton

Republican Primary

1. Marco Rubio
2. Ted Cruz
3. Donald Trump
4. John Kasich
5. Jeb Bush
6. Chris Christie
7. Ben Carson
8. Carly Fiorina
9. Jim Gilmore

May the best win!

In Liberty,
Jacob Stech '18

Aftermath of the Iowa Caucuses

Image result for ted cruz iowa victory

I decided to wait a week before I wrote my post-caucus analysis because I wanted to see what the prolonged effects of the Iowa caucuses would be. After the caucuses, four candidates dropped out of the race; while I correctly predicted two of them, the other two came as a complete surprise to me. Also, while I correctly predicted the winner of the Republican caucuses, I was not so lucky when it came to the Democratic caucuses though, which I expected. Here is my analysis below.

For the Republicans, I predicted that Ted Cruz would win Iowa, but I was surprised by how wrong the polls were leading up to the caucuses and how big of a lead Cruz won by. While I predicted that Donald Trump would not be able to rally his supporters to make them come to the caucuses, I was wrong when it came to how bad he would perform because of it; I predicted he would get fourth place while he actually got a very distant second. It is also important to note how well Marco Rubio did even though he finished in third; he outperformed in the state, beating expectation after expectation (including mine), and he almost beat out Trump for second place. Rand Paul under-performed in the state; he was expected to get at least 10,000 votes, but in the end, he only amassed 8,481 votes, which eventually caused him to make a shocking campaign suspension two days later. While I didn't get the order correct after Bush and Fiorina, I did predict correctly that it would be a jumble of non-Rubio establishment candidates and afterthoughts. When the caucuses ended, Mike Huckabee kept his "top three" promise and dropped out of the race. Rick Santorum took a couple days to reevaluate his campaign and decided to end his campaign altogether hours after Rand Paul ended his campaign. 

Last Wednesday, Donald Trump started to tweet that Ted Cruz had cheated his way to win the Iowa caucuses because of a CNN report that said Ben Carson was going to take a break after Iowa. Ted Cruz campaign staffers assumed that this meant he was dropping out, so they told their precinct chairs to tell Carson supporters that their candidate was ending the race and to vote for Ted Cruz instead. While I'm sure a few voters switched from Carson to Cruz, I don't believe that this was the reason that he won. I also believe that this was a genuine mistake on both the Carson and Cruz campaigns; the Carson campaign should have waited until after Iowa to announce this unusual change in plans, and the Cruz campaign should have waited to hear more before they made such a big assumption. I do not believe that any of the campaigns will try to challenge the results because of this. 

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton barely edged out Bernie Sanders by a thin margin of 0.25 points. The race was always expected to be close between these two, but I was not expecting it to be within this close of a margin. I believe this happened because Martin O'Malley's supporters moved to Bernie Sanders after their candidate did not get the 15% to have the viability to keep his votes; this eventually forced O'Malley to suspend his campaign while the votes (delegates) were still being counted. One controversial thing that happened was the fact that a coin toss eventually decided the allocation of state delegates in six precincts because of a tie. I do not agree that this should have been the way to fix this issue, and Bernie Sanders is currently challenging the results because of this, but I do not expect any major changes. 

In summation, Ted Cruz won even though he campaigned against ethanol subsidies, Hillary Clinton won by six coin tosses, and this race is still an unusual one. Nine Republicans and two Democrats remain. The New Hampshire primaries are tomorrow, and I will be posting my predictions for both parties' primaries later today. 

In Liberty,
Jacob Stech '18