2016 Iowa Caucuses Predictions: The Democrats

Earlier today, I decided that I would write my predictions out for each of the primaries and caucuses throughout the primary season. Here is my post on what I think will happen on the Democratic side tomorrow night in Iowa.

2016 Iowa Democratic Caucuses Predictions

In my last post, I predicted what would happen by going through each candidate, but I think it will be easier to predict the Democratic caucuses by just telling it all at once. 

It is important to know that in the last Iowa poll before the caucuses, Hillary Clinton only leads Bernie Sanders by three points (46% to 43%, I believe). This means that literally anything can happen tomorrow night. I think that the final result will be very close; it seriously could go either way. I personally think that Bernie Sanders will barely edge out Hillary Clinton. Here's why. Sanders' base is fired up, so I believe that there will be a high turnout of Sanders supporters along with a high turnout of loyal Hillary Clinton supporters. Oh, and we cannot forget about Martin O'Malley's supporters, who I think will play a larger role in the determination of who will win than they think they will. 

There is an interesting rule in the Democratic caucuses that goes like this: if a candidate does not gather 15% support in a precinct, the supporters are then released from supporting that candidate and are free to either choose another candidate or make themselves undeclared. I am confident that O'Malley's supporters will have to face a decision of supporting either Bernie or Hillary in multiple precincts tomorrow night. I also believe that most of these supporters will go to Bernie Sanders because O'Malley's supporters are looking for anybody but Hillary Clinton, so they are willing to go to Bernie before they go to Hillary. In regards to O'Malley possibly dropping out, I can see him doing so tomorrow night or Tuesday morning, but my prediction is that he will wait until after New Hampshire to do so. 

I believe that Hillary Clinton will ultimately lose the caucuses because she has been so wrapped up in having to defend scandal after scandal throughout the race so far, and I think that a lot of Democrats are very wary of trusting her to be in charge of an entire nation. If she can't use a government email or if she can't tell the truth about what happened in Benghazi, how can we trust her to make very important decisions. Her pending FBI investigation isn't helping, either. There is a chance that she could be indicted, and if that happens, her campaign is over. A lack of trust will ultimately produce a win for Bernie Sanders. 

Remember back in 2008 when a lesser-known Senator began his race to win the nomination over Hillary Clinton with a win in Iowa? I can easily see this happening again with Bernie Sanders this time around. We'll know for sure tomorrow night. 

In Liberty,
Jacob Stech '18

2016 Iowa Caucuses Predictions: The Republicans

Before each primary contest, I plan to post my predictions on how I think each contest will go. As this race has been more unpredictable than previous presidential elections already, something could happen between the moment this post is published and the caucuses themselves, so I will disclaim that these are my predictions as of Sunday afternoon on January 31st, 2016, the day before the caucuses occur. I will make edits only if something major happens.

I will go through each Republican candidate in alphabetical order, then I will rank them at the end of the post. I will then do the same for the Democratic candidates in a later post.

2016 Iowa Republican Caucuses Predictions

Jeb Bush

I believe that Jeb Bush will not perform well in Iowa for two reasons: there are multiple establishment candidates fighting for the same voters, and his campaign has focused more on New Hampshire, meaning the Iowa voters have not had as much exposure to the candidate as those in the Granite State have. I feel like he would be doing better as a whole if Donald Trump, who has attacked Bush more than any other candidate, was not present in the race. This was proven, in my opinion, when Jeb Bush shined in Thursday night's debate due to Trump's absence. Out of the four establishment candidates running (Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Jeb Bush), I am predicting that he will get second place in the establishment lane behind Rubio.

Ben Carson

This is a hard one to predict. Yes, Ben Carson has been spending most of his time in Iowa versus New Hampshire, but has his hard work payed off? He was doing really well in the fall until the media pummelled him into the afterthought category. While he still makes the main stage for the debates, he gets the least amount of speaking time. In the latest Des Moines Register poll that was released on Saturday night, Ben Carson is in fourth place with 10 percent. I believe that he has a unique and loyal group of voters, but I am not sure if he can gather more support with stronger evangelicals like Cruz still in the race and getting all of the media attention. He has said that if he does not place in the top three in two of the first four states, he will drop out of the race. There is a possibility that he can place in the top five, but it would be a miracle for the Carson campaign if he places in the top 3.

Chris Christie

Christie has the same problem as Jeb Bush has in Iowa: too many establishment candidates and a small presence in the state. Like Bush, Christie has concentrated his efforts in New Hampshire, but I have noticed that he has buffed up his presence in the Hawkeye State in the past week. While I feel like it is too little too late, it shows that he at least cares about the people of Iowa, even if it is just a little bit. Out of all of the establishment candidates, I predict that he will get the bronze medal behind Rubio and Bush.

Ted Cruz

While I am a Ted Cruz supporter, I will try my best not to insert my bias into this argument. However, I am going to predict right now that Ted Cruz will win Iowa, but not because I support him, but because the electorate of Iowa favors candidates like Cruz. Iowa Republicans are known to favor the evangelical and more conservative candidates rather than the establishment candidates. In 2008 and 2012, evangelical candidates and current afterthoughts Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum won the race and began to gain momentum nationwide throughout the other contests, but it was not enough for them to get the nomination in the end. I feel like Cruz has the ability to win Iowa, but I also feel like he has the ability to gain enough momentum to win the nomination. He has support from many different parts of the party, including the Tea Party, evangelicals, conservatives, libertarians that came from Rand Paul's campaign, and some younger voters. Also, I feel like he is the more sane alternative to Donald Trump. His broad party support (the Reagan Coalition) and his seriousness should be enough for him to win Iowa and maybe even the nomination. One thing to watch, though, is if his opposition to ethanol subsidies, a big issue in Iowa, causes him to not perform as well as some may hope.

Carly Fiorina

This is another hard candidate to predict. While she gained momentum after her amazing debate performances in August and September, she has started to slump nationwide, putting her back into the undercard debates from which she had rose from earlier. I honestly cannot figure out which faction of the party she is strongest in if any at all. I believe she is an outsider candidate who will perform poorly in the state of Iowa and slightly better in New Hampshire, but I wouldn't be surprised if she performs better than people are expecting. If she performs poorly, I predict that she will wait until after New Hampshire's results to decide if she will drop out or not.

Jim Gilmore

Very unknown candidate Jim Gilmore said during the last undercard debate that he chose to begin his campaign in the state of New Hampshire. Since he has not held any events in Iowa and has a very small campaign in New Hampshire. I would be absolutely shocked if he does not get last place in Iowa, and if he performs better than last place, I feel sorry for the candidate(s) that gather less votes than Gilmore. 

Mike Huckabee

Even though he won the Iowa Caucuses back in 2008, he has a very steep hill to climb if he wants to win it again, and I don't believe that he will make it to the top of this mountain. Ever since he made his transphobic joke about "showering with the girls" in P.E. class, his poll numbers have gotten poorer and poorer, eventually putting him in the undercard debates of which he has not been able to come back from. Not only do I believe he will perform very poorly in the caucuses, but I am boldly predicting that he will suspend his campaign as of Monday night or Tuesday morning to put his support behind Ted Cruz; he has already said that if he does not place in the top three in Iowa, he will drop out.

John Kasich

Kasich has the same problem as both Christie and Bush: too many establishment candidates and a small presence in Iowa. Not only does Kasich have a small presence in Iowa, it seems that he has skipped the state altogether; he has been campaigning in New Hampshire this weekend. I believe that he will perform rather poorly in Iowa, but because he is surging in New Hampshire right now (he is in second in most of the newest NH polls), I fully believe that his placement in Iowa will not affect his campaign that much. I also believe that he will perform last in the establishment category.

Rand Paul

Rand Paul has a loyal backing of college students, and I believe that Rand Paul will have a very strong showing in Iowa because of this. I believe that Rand Paul will outperform many of the other candidates and exceed expectations in the state. Ron Paul, Rand's father, ended up exceeding expectations and getting third place in 2012, and I believe that Rand could do the same; I wouldn't be surprised if he got more votes than Ben Carson in the final tally. One thing that will be interesting to watch is if libertarians tend to vote more for Ted Cruz or Rand Paul. Ted Cruz has successfully taken some of Rand Paul's former support, including myself, and I believe that others have probably followed suit due to how Rand has not been able to excite the libertarian base as his father was able to back in 2012. Hopefully tonight's Rand Paul/Ron Paul rally will excite the base to the needed levels.

Marco Rubio

Marco might be one of the establishment candidates, but I believe he has the best chance out of the rest of the candidates in his lane to perform well in the state. He stands out because of his young age and his positive message. He also stands out because he has found the time to focus both on Iowa and New Hampshire, unlike Bush, Christie, and Kasich. While establishment moderates are not part of a huge bloc in Iowa as in New Hampshire, there are still some out there, and I believe Rubio will win the establishment fight tomorrow night at the caucuses, maybe pulling out a second, third, or fourth place win overall.

Rick Santorum

Rick Santorum has the same problem as Mike Huckabee: sagging poll numbers despite being the most recent winner of the caucuses. Santorum has not been able to get on the main stage, meaning that his message has not been able to get to the American people as well as it did back in 2012. Because of this, he has become an afterthought in the state, and I expect him to perform poorly in Iowa and I expect him to drop out as of Monday night or Tuesday morning, just like Huckabee, and endorse Cruz, just like Huckabee.

Donald Trump

Boy, do I have a lot to say about this one. Donald Trump has been able to somehow fight his way to the top of the polls despite being the most bold and divisive candidate that I have ever seen in any race since I became interested in politics. Despite talking about banning Muslims, calling illegal immigrants rapists, and joking about shooting someone on a busy New York street, he has been able to gather the most attention out of any candidate. He has even called the people of Iowa stupid for considering Dr. Ben Carson at all. He even skipped the last debate, which in my opinion shows that he does not care about the people of Iowa enough to put himself in front of Megyn Kelly again. In the last poll before the caucuses, Donald Trump placed in first with 28% while leading Cruz, who had 23% in that poll. Since I have placed Cruz in my top picks to win the state, that means that I believe Trump will not win the state despite the latest polls. Here's why I think that. I know that Donald Trump's Iowa ground game is very bad; they do not canvass in any way as far as I know, and their phone-banking seems to be calling mostly Bernie Sanders supporters or voters who have little to no history of voting. They are relying too much on media coverage and voter excitement, and I believe this will hurt him in the end. Heck, on Meet the Press this morning, they talked to Trump supporters who said that it would be too much work for them to go to the caucuses and support Trump. Because of this, I believe that Trump will underperform by a lot, which could put him in a bad place entering New Hampshire. The state of Iowa could be known as the state where Donald Trump's campaign began to derail.

Final Rankings:

1. Ted Cruz

2. Marco Rubio 

3. Rand Paul 

4. Donald Trump

5. Ben Carson

6. Jeb Bush 

7. Carly Fiorina

8. Mike Huckabee

9. Chris Christie 

10. Rick Santorum

11. John Kasich

12. Jim Gilmore 

I have some bold predictions in here, especially my third and fourth place picks. While this race has been unpredictable, I felt like I could pick an unpredictable move like this and maybe be right. Either way, we'll find out tomorrow night starting at 8pm EST. 

In Liberty,

Jacob Stech '18

My Trip to New Hampshire: January 20th, 2016 (Day 9) (Last Day)

January 20th, 2016

Today began early as my classmates and I woke up at 5:30am to go to a Marco Rubio town hall in Plymouth, NH. When we got to the Rubio event, I noticed that the room was a decent size with about 250 people, which was more people than I thought would show up for a town hall that took place at 7:30am. I thought that Marco Rubio did a good job of answering questions; he made sure to answer each question by going into detail, much like the other candidates had been doing at their events, minus Donald Trump. He made sure to touch upon many issues including education and gun rights. He also talks about how he represents a new generation of leadership going into a new American century. After the rally, we got the chance to meet and take pictures with Marco Rubio, who was very nice and was willing to meet with every voter who wanted to meet with him before he left for his speech at the New Hampshire State House, where we would be headed next to hear one of his rivals, Ohio Governor John Kasich, speak to the New Hampshire House of Representatives.



Once we got to the New Hampshire State House in Concord, NH, we headed up the stairs to the gallery that was above where the legislators were sitting, but before we entered the gallery, we saw John Kasich standing in the hallway with a couple of his staffers. He happily took a picture with us as a group before he spoke. When he got onto the stage, he did not talk much about his political views on certain issues, but he did praise the NH legislature for passing Medicare expansion, which is an issue that many of his Republican rivals do not agree with him on. Kasich also promised to come back to the NH legislature as President to address them because he respects how they are truly a 'citizen government.' He also mentions his journey of how he became the governor of Ohio and how he will use his governing experiences during his presidency.



After his speech, we headed downstairs to see some Rubio supporters gathered around to greet him after he completed his address, which was scheduled to follow Kasich's address. We all took part in this sign-holding and cheering for Rubio, and while it felt sort of weird to be rooting for another candidate for a minute-and-a-half, it was sort of fun rallying for a candidate that was only a few feet away from me. After we watched Marco Rubio get on his tour bus, we all headed to lunch, but not before we got a selfie with the John Kasich tour bus! After lunch, we walked to the Bill Clinton rally that was just across the street, and I was met with surprise when we did not have to go through heavy security as we did when we got to the Trump rally. While the Trump rally had airport-like security, we walked into the Bill Clinton event like it was a regular rally for a candidate without Secret Service protection. Although, when we walked in, we were asked to give the Hillary campaign our names, email, phone number, and zip code; this is similar to the Ted Cruz campaign's entry tickets as a way to collect voter information.

When we all got into the rally, we were met with the terrible news that because Winter Storm Jonas is set to hit Virginia on Friday, we would have to end our trip early tomorrow morning and head back to Virginia to beat the storm. This means that we would have to miss Martin O'Malley tomorrow and Hillary Clinton on Friday. We brushed off the news at the moment so that we could enjoy hearing Former President Bill Clinton speak, but the news would impact us more after the rally. Clinton spoke about his wife and how she would be an amazing president if she was to be elected. He made sure to talk about how his wife had amazing approval numbers at the end of her tenure as Secretary of State. He also made sure to attack the Republicans on many things, including their stances on gun control and defunding Planned Parenthood. At the end of the rally, he was happy to meet with voters behind a barrier to shake hands and sign many different things. I was lucky enough to be able to shake his hand and was able to snap a quick picture of him within milliseconds of the moment. Yes, that is my hand in the picture!



I was very pleased with how the audience acted during and after the rally. There were no incidents that took place due to crazy fans; these voters acted calmly and respectfully towards those surrounding them and towards the man on stage. This was in stark contrast to the Trump rally, where the supporters were pushing people and yelling out during the speech. After the rally, we were finally able to process the news that we would be leaving the Granite State early due to the weather ahead, and our class planned a nice dinner at The Foundry so that we could all spend one last dinner together as a group, but there was one catch; the Cruz supporters had already planned to take part in an invite-only and no-press-allowed house party that Ted Cruz would be at. While it was an honor to be invited to this house party, it was sad for me to not be able to eat with my classmates this one last time.

At the house party, I was given the job of checking people in and making sure that those who did not get invited did not get into the event. About 75 people showed up to the event altogether. After about an hour, the Cruz tour bus showed up and in came the guest of the night. Ted Cruz greeted us at the door and proceeded to the living room where he would give his speech to the quests and answer many questions. He made sure to stay after for a while after the rally to speak to voters individually and to make connections with the voters. I even got the chance to speak with him for a few minutes about volunteering in New Hampshire, the Virginia primary, and Super Tuesday altogether. He even told me that he admires Rand Paul greatly after I told him that I walked into his Richmond rally as a Paul supporter and walked out as a Cruz supporter. After he left the house, I thought about the significance of doing smaller events like this versus doing large-scale rallies like his other events are. I thought of the name of our class, Retail Politics, and how at these smaller-scaled events, candidates can be personal with their voters and let loose without worrying about what the press will say about them; in terms of 'Retail Politics', candidates can sell themselves to their voters.

My trip to New Hampshire began at a Second Amendment rally hosted by Ted Cruz and it ended with a house party with Ted Cruz in attendance. I got to meet many famous political figures during this trip, including Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, and Jeb Bush. I also got to learn a lot about the New Hampshire primary and the state as a whole during this last week-and-a-half. I believe that this experience was a once-in-a-lifetime one, and I am very happy that I was able to figure out a way to go on this trip as it was one of the greatest times of my life. I want to end this series of journal entries with one last thanks to my professor since I know that he is reading these because these entries are part of a grade for the class.

Dr. Fullmer, thank you so much for putting this trip together. I cannot imagine how much time it took for you to convince the school to let this trip become a reality, and I cannot imagine how much time it took for you to get all of us together and in contact with our campaigns. I also want to thank you for letting me switch campaigns at the last minute from Rand Paul to Ted Cruz. I fully enjoyed this trip, and without this opportunity, I could not think of another way that I would have been able to get a hands-on experience of an election that I have been excited for since Mitt Romney lost in 2012. Aside from the educational parts of the trip, I also enjoyed the many moments that our class hung out together as we were able to get to know each other better and grow as a family each and every day. Finally, I hope that we were all good guinea pigs for this class, and I hope that the school lets you do this trip again for the 2020 election. I will be more than happy to serve as a chaperone for the 2020 trip if you end up letting alumni come and if my schedule permits me to do so. Thanks again, and I hope that this was as great of a trip for you as it was for my classmates and I.

In Liberty,
Jacob Stech '18

My Trip to New Hampshire: January 19th, 2016 (Day 8)

January 19th, 2016

Today was a day filled with campaigning and a lesser-known candidates debate. During my time at the Ted Cruz campaign office, I spent most of my time making calls to voters to figure out if they would support Ted Cruz in the primaries. Once again, I chose the Common Core script over the defunding Planned Parenthood script because I felt more comfortable talking to voters about education over abortion. I had a decent amount of voters cooperate with me to complete the survey, but what I learned yesterday from Dr. Andrew Smith about voters becoming annoyed with the constant phone calls was confirmed with today's call session. About half of those who answered the phone told me either to stop calling them, to take them off their calling list, or to stop calling their work numbers because they needed to work and not waste their time talking about politics. At least these voters were kind enough to not curse me out or hang up in my face like some other callers did. I also noticed that not too many people answered because I was calling in the morning and afternoon on a Tuesday when most people are expected to be at work. I believe that my classmate and I would have been more useful canvassing instead of making phone calls at the time because throughout my trip so far, I have noticed that more people tend to answer doors than answer phone calls. 

After my calling session flew by, it was almost time to go to the lesser-known candidates debate, which was basically a forum for those candidates that are only on their party ballot in only a few states and are virtually unknown to the public due to no media coverage. However, one candidate by the name of Vermin Supreme was banned from the event this year because of an incident that took place in the 2011 forum where he sprayed glitter on another candidate in order to "make him gay." Because of this incident, Vermin Supreme decided to campaign outside of the building in the freezing cold in order to meet voters before the event. He talked about mandatory teeth-brushing laws, ponies for everyone, and zombie power. He was a very energetic and funny guy with many ties and a boot on his head, and my classmates got the chance to take pictures and selfies with him, including myself! 

Regarding the debate itself, it was filled with candidates with extreme views, wacky views, and views completely out of line with those of the party that they are running for. In the Republican debate, there was one candidate by the name of Stephen Comley who was a conspiracy theorist. After the debate, he was persistent in getting my professor and some of my classmates to support him, but we couldn't because we are Virginia voters and he was only on the ballot in New Hampshire. Other Republican candidates included one man who wanted to throw Hillary Clinton in Guantanamo Bay in Cuba and three other men that did not stand out to me in any way. On the Democratic side, there were twenty candidates, including a white supremacist, a man who campaigned on Christmas values, and a man who called himself a pro-life Democrat. Overall, the event was very interesting because it exemplified what we learned in class, which was that the 17 major Republicans and the five major Democratic candidates are not the only candidates actually running for the presidency; there are hundreds of different names registered on the Federal Election Commission's website.

When we got back to the hotel after the debate, some of us hung out in the lobby for a little bit. After an hour or so, we realized that Fox News anchor and moderator of the next Republican Debate Bret Baier was at the bar. We eventually made our way to him, but not until most of the class had already gone to bed. When we met Baier, he was very nice and polite. He also let us ask him a few questions. I got to ask him what the criteria would be in order to qualify for the next debate and he told me that it would be relatively the same as the previous debate. The rest of my class told him questions that he should ask the candidates at the next debate. One student asked him to ask Donald Trump what he would do in his first 100 days in office; I thought it was a good question to ask because I do not believe Trump has explicitly said what he would do in those first important days of his term, and Trump does not dive deep policy-wise in his usual debate answers. Before he left, we took a few pictures with him.

Tomorrow is currently planned to be a busy day. My classmates and I are going to wake up early to go see Marco Rubio and then watch John Kasich speak at the New Hampshire State House. We might also see Bill Clinton at a Hillary Clinton surrogate event, which would be a great experience for all of us to see because he is one of our former presidents and a potential first gentlemen.  

In Liberty,

Jacob Stech '18

My Trip to New Hampshire: January 18th, 2016 (Day 7)

January 18th, 2016

We started our day by attending a guest lecture by Dr. Andrew Smith at St. Anselm College. Dr. Smith happened to be one of the coauthors of the textbook used for our class, The First Primary, so it was interesting to see how some of the points of the textbook were built upon in this lecture. Dr. Smith's lecture focused on micro-targeting, which has been a reoccurring theme throughout the campaigning portion of our trip. He talked about phone-banking and how they are usually conducted on landlines, which has come under criticism this election cycle from some undercard candidates such as Rand Paul and Rick Santorum. Because Dr. Smith has helped with producing the results of the CNN/WMUR polls that have been released throughout the election season, he pointed out that polls from news sources are more about collecting data about the current opinions of voters rather than trying to change a voter's mind; in summation, they want to collect data, not influence opinions. He also told us that two polls would be released in the next two days, a democratic poll on Tuesday and a Republican poll on Wednesday.

He also tried to debunk some of the myths that come along with the New Hampshire primary. He told us that New Hampshire voters are not nearly as active and enthusiastic about the primary as most people may believe; he said that the voters get tired of the constant calls from pollsters and campaigns. This is a proven fact on my side because more than half of the voters that pick up the phone interrupt me to say that they are sick of these calls and that they want me to stop calling them. 

On the subject of micro-targeting, he talked about how certain voters are subject to different messages throughout the primaries. I see this tactic at work in my campaign; some volunteers are being asked to call some voters to tell them about Ted Cruz's stance on Common Core while other volunteers are calling different voters to tell them about his stance on defunding Planned Parenthood. On the Democratic side, specifically in last night's debate, Hillary Clinton chose to answer her final question by talking about the Flint Water Crisis in Michigan because she knew that it would appeal to African-American voters, which is a demographic that Clinton is strong with and Bernie Sanders is weaker with right now. She also knew that it would look good for her to talk about this issue in South Carolina, where the African-American population is high. 

After the lecture, we ate lunch and then headed to a Donald Trump rally, which I was looking forward to all throughout this weekend. When we got there, we noticed that we had VIP seats in the second row thanks to our two Trump volunteers. When Donald Trump appeared on stage about an hour later, the crowd erupted in applause as if a rock star had just walked on the stage and performed his biggest hit. Earlier in the day, I had realized the irony of going to see the most divisive candidate in the race on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day; I was thankful that Donald Trump decided to not mention his more divisive issues on this day, such as banning Muslims from coming into the United States. However, Donald Trump did his usual pandering to the audience, which included talking about his poll numbers and talking about the wall that he would build on the Mexican border. Much like most of Trump's speeches, this speech had very little policy and mostly soundbites. Also, Ivanka Trump, Donald's daughter, made a surprise appearance towards the end of the rally. 

In class, we learned about populist candidates, which are candidates that talk about issues that the run-of-the-mill candidates seem to ignore in fear of losing voters. Populist candidates always talk about the issues that voters most want to hear about, and many of these candidates may take extreme positions on these issues. Both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, the populist candidates of the Republican and Democratic parties, respectively, are doing a good job at gathering a large and energized fan base to keep their campaign momentum going into the primaries. This energy was present at the end of his rally. Remember that calm, single-file picture line I mentioned at the Rand Paul rally? It was nonexistent at the Trump one. Fans were screaming, pushing, and doing anything to get their rally sign or their Trump magazine autographed. The chaos even resulted in a fellow classmate getting into an uncomfortable situation, and by that point, I gave up on trying to get an autograph or picture because I was more worried about my fellow classmate. The Secret Service and Donald Trump himself handled it well, but it could have been easily avoided with better crowd-control and a calmer audience.

By the time the rally had ended, I had no energy to go to the Cruz campaign office because we were so worried about our classmate at the time. Thankfully, everything was better within an hour or so, and everybody was happy that our classmate was okay and ready to continue on with our experiences here in the Granite State. Today was a crazy day, an interesting day, and an all-around abnormal day. I am disappointed that the fans at the Trump rally could not calm themselves down like the attendees of the Rand Paul or Chris Christie rallies, but I completely understand that populist candidates have the tendency to attract more outgoing and energized voters, so I should have seen the craziness of the rally coming. Tomorrow, I plan to spend the majority of my day campaigning for Cruz and then going to a lesser-known candidates event that night. Both activities should be good experiences for me. 

In Liberty.

Jacob Stech '18

My Trip to New Hampshire: January 16th and 17th, 2016 (Days 5 and 6)

January 16th, 2016

This morning, our class split up into two groups: those who planned to go to the Rand Paul town hall and those who planned to go to the Jeb Bush town hall. I chose to go to the Rand Paul rally in Manchester, NH with four other students. When we arrived, I noticed that the room was a bit smaller than the Carly Fiorina rally, which had an estimate of about 300 people attending. The Rand Paul town hall had about 200 people by the time the event ended. Unlike the other events we had been to, Rand Paul took pictures with us before he spoke, which made things easier and more efficient for everybody because there was no chaos and nobody got left out. After the pictures, Rand Paul started his speech by talking about foreign policy issues and solutions that made sense, which included not sending money to countries that hate us and not bombing everything in sight in the Middle East. Because there was another event in the hall soon after Rand's town hall, he could only speak for about 20 minutes. The only criticism I have was that he focused a little too much on foreign policy than anything else, but it was understandable because he was not given much time to speak. 

After the rally, not much happened. I was supposed to go canvassing with the Cruz campaign during the afternoon, but unpredicted events kept happening on the campaign's side, so I ended up not doing any campaign work for the day. However, because of this, I was able to experience some of New Hampshire's culture, specifically their love for the New England Patriots. Our class decided to go to Murphy's Taproom, which was swarming with Patriots fans. Being a Redskins fan and having an absolute hatred for the Patriots, it was very hard for me to sit there and watch the Patriots beat the Chiefs, but I hid in the background while the fans cheered loudly around me. Either way, it was fun to talk about our campaign experiences over dinner once again. 

January 17th, 2016

Today was a lot like the latter half of Saturday; nothing really happened politically except the Democratic debate. Sadly, I was only able to watch parts of the debate here and there. From what I noticed, it seemed that the debate focused mostly on the growing feud between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, while Martin O'Malley struggled to gain attention or speaking time throughout it. Bernie tended to stick with his strong topics such as going against Wall Street and talking about the top 1%, while Hillary Clinton decided to try to appeal to African-American voters by mentioning Martin Luther King, Jr. and the Flint water crisis. 

Concerning today itself, the plan was to either make phone calls in the Ted Cruz office or go to the Ted Cruz event in Milford, NH to volunteer. We did not get a call from our campaign supervisor until later in the day, so we eventually decided to take the hotel shuttle over to the office to make phone calls. We stayed in the office for about two hours making a little less than 100 calls each because we spent the first hour talking to a fellow volunteer about random political topics. One topic that stuck out to me was when we started comparing the endorsements between Republican frontrunners Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. When I looked up Donald Trump's endorsements, I noticed that he has more celebrities behind him, including Gary Busey, Hulk Hogan, and Ann Coulter. Ted Cruz has higher-level political endorsements, including those from Steve King, Louie Gohmert, and Ken Cuccinelli. We learned in class that more endorsements does not mean more votes in the long run, but we determined that the higher-level political endorsements would benefit Cruz more than Trump's celebrity endorsements would benefit him. 

This weekend was a calm break from all of the craziness of the New Hampshire political world. I look forward to these next five days; I expect to start my week by going to see Donald Trump, and I expect to end my week (and my trip) by going to see Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, both of which I expect to be very interesting.

In Liberty,
Jacob Stech '18

My Trip to New Hampshire: January 15th, 2016 (Day 4)

January 15th, 2016

While my classmates were eating breakfast and getting ready for the day, something interesting happened. As we were eating, a woman that we were all familiar with entered the hotel. This woman was none other than presidential candidate and former CEO of HP Carly Fiorina. We could not get pictures with her because she was getting breakfast and preparing for a meeting with her staffers, but the fact that she was in our hotel and in our presence made the decision between the Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina rallies even easier. We decided as a class that we wanted to see Carly speak and we would head to her rally later in the day, which I will get to later in my entry.

My day began when I attended a lecture by Dr. Dante J. Scala, a professor at the University of New Hampshire. He spoke about topics like establishment candidates, outsider candidates, and the school of thought of the nomination process, all of which Dr. Fullmer has already taught us in the classroom the week before we left for this trip. However, the main focus of his lecture was explaining the four factions of the Republican Party, which were moderates and liberals, "somewhat conservatives", very conservative evangelicals, and very conservative seculars. He explains what each factions brings to the table in lieu of candidate qualities, party identification, Tea Party support, and issues that matter. He also tells us that candidates must first win their faction "bracket", then build their coalition around the factions they are not as strong in. Even though a lot of the lecture was a review of earlier material and previous knowledge, I thought the lecture was useful because it reinforced important points and built upon those points.

After the lecture and our lunch break, I was sent to the Ted Cruz Campaign office to make more calls. Instead of using the previous script regarding Common Core, our mission for today was to call potential voters and notify them about a future Ted Cruz event that would occur on Monday night in Whitefield, NH. Some of the voters who answered the phone were interested in the event and would try to come, but most of the voters that answered said that they would not be able to come. I believe that these calls were useful because most of the voters that couldn't go to the event said that they were interested in Ted Cruz as a candidate, so it was still an effective way to contact voters overall. I made about 300 calls in about three-and-a-half hours, which was a good number considering I took some of that time to eat some snacks that the campaign provided us. 

Hours later, when we arrived at the town hall, we were welcomed by volunteers who gave us Carly Fiorina stickers, literature, and rally signs. Before the town hall began, another student found an article about Carly Fiorina's campaign organization, Carly for President, and her possible communications with her SuperPAC, Carly for America. In class, we learned that candidate organizations are not allowed to communicate with SuperPACs in any way. If this story was true, it would mean that her campaign could get in serious trouble for doing this. After we read the story, we noticed that all of the free Carly things that we got were actually from her SuperPAC, minus the one piece of literature that explained her blueprint for fixing America. The rally itself was very good; Carly Fiorina is a great speaker. She provided many interesting ways to start a "citizen government", which included the people voting on what President Fiorina should do on certain issues, and she answered questions clearly and concisely, including one from a little girl who called Donald Trump a "moron". After the rally, we got the chance to take pictures and get autographs from her. She remembered us from the hotel and welcomed us, and she even signed my rally sign, which was ironically from her SuperPAC and not her campaign. 

 

When we got back from Carly's town hall, we ate dinner at the hotel. We saw Carly Fiorina come back in the hotel from her rally, which was really cool. During dinner, we talked and joked about the possibility of Jeb Bush coming into the hotel; earlier in the day, the shuttle bus driver had told me that Bush had been in the hotel, too, and that he liked to talk to voters when he stayed there. About an hour after we joked about it, something interesting happens. Much to our complete shock, Jeb Bush actually comes into the hotel. He seemed to be a little tired from campaigning all day, but he was willing to take a few pictures with us. The picture with Jeb Bush and I was rushed, but it was better than not having a picture at all! 

I did not wake up today thinking that two presidential candidates would be in our hotel, and I certainly did not wake up thinking that I would be able to meet both of them! The big decision of whether to go to Bush's rally or Fiorina's town hall was solved quickly with an extra bonus! Tomorrow, I am supposed to go to a Rand Paul rally, which I am really excited for since he was my former first-choice candidate and now my second choice. 

In Liberty, 

Jacob Stech '18

My Trip to New Hampshire: January 14th, 2016 (Day 3)

January 14th, 2015

Today was a calmer day compared to the first two days of my trip. We spent about four hours canvassing in neighborhoods in Londonderry, NH for Ted Cruz. For each house, we would go up to the door and ring the doorbell or knock on the door, and if the target voter answered, we talked to him or her about the election and if they had made up their mind on who they would support in the primary. If they seemed interested in Ted Cruz, we would give them literature in order for them to get to learn more about the candidate. We also gave voters that were leaning towards Ted Cruz a bumper sticker and a pocket constitution. 

In class, we learned that money given to a campaign can be spent in many different ways, including ads, media, get-out-the-vote efforts, yard signs, and more. In my opinion, a strong campaign needs to have a good ground game, meaning they need to spend a decent amount of money on canvassing and communicating with voters. I also learned in class that field funds are growing nationally, especially in the states of Iowa and New Hampshire, because researchers have found that campaigns with a good ground game tend to do better than those that do not. I feel that the Ted Cruz campaign is doing really well because the campaign is spending money on fieldwork so that we can find and speak to the voters that have the best chance of voting for Ted Cruz on February 9th. 

After canvassing ended, we decided as a class to go to the Bernie Sanders town hall in at Dartmouth College in Hanover, NH. Throughout the summer of 2015, Bernie would attract thousands upon thousands of people to his rallies, so I was expecting the rally to be held in a large stadium where everybody could fit inside one room to watch. I was wrong; the event was held in a smaller setting with only a couple thousand people, with a few hundred people in other overflow rooms, including our class. Even though we had to watch the actual rally on the screen, Bernie Sanders was kind enough to come to the overflow rooms and speak to us briefly before the rally, which I thought was really neat. The town hall was more of a rally with a few questions at the end, and the speech was one that I had heard mostly before. He talked about Wall Street, free public college, and the one-percent, which were his typical talking points. One criticism that I do have about the rally is that he didn't take time to talk about bigger issues such as the threat of ISIS and gun control. Actually, he did talk about gun control, but it was very brief and it did not come up until an audience member asked him about it. Also, even though I am a Republican and Bernie is a Democrat, it was really cool to go to a rally where most of those in attendance did not agree with my views. 

Even though today was a rather calm day compared to the rest of my trip so far, it was still a rewarding day for me because I got to continue my hands-on learning experience that this trip has given me the opportunity to participate in. I was also able to attend my first Democratic rally ever, which was a cool experience. I know my class plans to either attend a Carly Fiorina town hall or a Jeb Bush town hall tomorrow, but we are not sure yet. I'm currently leaning towards Fiorina, but I'll see what my class wants to do and I'll just follow suit. 

In Liberty, 

Jacob Stech '18

My Trip to New Hampshire: January 13th, 2016 (Day 2)

Day 2: January 13th, 2016

We started our day by attending New Jersey Governor Chris Christie's rally in Goffstown, NH. I believe that Chris Christie did a good job overall because he answered questions well by giving clear and concise answers that calmed voters' worries and gave many facts to back up his opinions. Because we had to leave the rally a little bit early due to our New Hampshire State Capital trip, we did not get to meet Christie and get pictures, but I did get lucky enough to shake his hand before the town hall began, and a classmate of mine was lucky enough to ask him a question about how he would help those with disabilities. As we headed the bus, we saw some protesters that were protesting against some of Christie's more moderate views and tendencies, such as his recent flip on Common Core and his hug with President Obama back in 2012 after Hurricane Sandy. 

When we arrived at the New Hampshire state capitol building, we walked into a huge room with many different flags from many eras of New Hampshire history, specifically the Civil War. Once we saw this, our tour guide led us into a room where the current governor, Maggie Hassen, was meeting with her five councilmen to determine whether to fund certain programs or not; these councilmen take the place of the lieutenant governor, a position well-known in most other state governments. After this, we visited the two areas where the House and Senate legislators create and pass laws; it was really cool to hear about how these members are only paid $100 a year to be a legislator, which shows that the people of New Hampshire are politically inclined enough to not care about a good salary. It is also important to know that many of these legislators have jobs on the side if they are not already retired. Also, I believe that the legislature is well-represented, with the house having 400 members, which is the biggest amount of members in any state house legislature in the United States. Before we left the building, we made sure to take pictures of the billboard in the gift shop, which was full of autographed bumper stickers, rally signs, and pictures from New Hampshire primary's past and present. It was simply amazing to see all of the old campaign artifacts. 

  

After we got our lunch, we headed to our respective campaign offices, with mine being the Ted Cruz Campaign Headquarters. When we arrived at the office, we were told that we were going to be phone-banking with a script that emphasized Cruz's position on Common Core. Cruz would repeal the law in favor of more parent and teacher-oriented programs because he believes that the current one-size-fits-all government program for education is not working. As I was calling potential voters, I noticed that they were telling me that this issue was not as important to them as the economy and defeating ISIS, which I agreed with. I feel that if we had a script that fit more with the issues voters cared about more, I would have had less people hang up on me. As I was taking a small break from calling, I noticed that another staffer was looking through the entry tickets from Monday's events in order to possibly find more volunteers and get donations from them to fund the campaign, which went hand-in-hand with what I learned in class about micro-targeting. 

My trip to New Hampshire continues to intrigue me and get me more excited about the primary season and the election as a whole. I love the political atmosphere and the many surprises that this trip has had in store for me so far, and I can't wait to see what these next eight days have in store for my classmates and I.

In Liberty,

Jacob Stech '18

My Trip to New Hampshire: January 12th, 2016 (Day 1)

Before I begin, I want to point out that I am writing these posts to fulfill a requirement for the class that I am taking during my J-Term at Randolph-Macon College, so I will try my best to refrain from posting any bias in these entries, just as my professor does during his classes. As part of this class, I was given the chance to go to New Hampshire for roughly two weeks and campaign for a presidential candidate of my choice. I chose to work on the Ted Cruz campaign, and throughout my trip, I will be posting daily journal entries detailing my activities for each day.

Day 1: January 12th, 2016

The original plan for my day was to attend a guest lecture by Dr. Chris Galdieri of St. Anselm College with the rest of my class, but because Ted Cruz had two events planned in the area, another student, Kirby, and I were able to miss the event in order to help the Ted Cruz campaign set up and work both events. As my fellow classmates left for the lecture, we waited for our campaign supervisor, Michelle, to pick us up to head to the first rally, which took place at the Granite State Indoor Range in Hudson, NH. She was excited to have us volunteer with the campaign and both Kirby and I were eager to get started.

When we arrived at the gun range for the 2nd Amendment Rally, we started setting up the venue, which was basically a stage and a roped-off portion of the lawn. As people came in, I was told to pass out literature on Ted Cruz's stances on gun rights, which were obviously in contention with the President's executives orders that he put in place a few days before the rally. As more people came in, the rally started to get crowded, which was a good sign that people were interested in hearing the Senator and getting to know what he believes in. Once the rally began, I made my way towards the front of the crowd to watch the many speakers that would talk before Cruz. When Cruz came up on stage, things took an unexpected turn.

The moment Cruz came on stage and the country music stopped, two men came on stage one after the other to gain attention for their group, Armed Americans. However, because their mannerisms and they words made them seem like protesters, the audience started booing the two and Cruz told them that they must be confused and that they should exit the stage, which I believe was the right thing to do. Once that was out of the way, Cruz gave his speech, which was praised by the gun-rights activists that were in attendance. Cruz promised that if he becomes president, he would defend gun rights and make sure that the Second Amendment would be used to fight tyranny. He also spoke about how massacres almost always occur at places where guns are not allowed, so nobody could defend themselves from the gunman. When the rally ended, I had the opportunity to take a picture with Cruz and I got him to sign my Ted Cruz Pocket Constitution. 

 

After we cleaned up, we headed to the next rally, which took place at Londonderry High School. We had to set up chairs, pass out literature, and pass out rally signs before the rally began. The rally started way later than expected because we had to make room for the massive overflow of people that we had! This rally was called "The State of OUR Union", so Ted Cruz pretended he was the President giving the 2018 State of the Union. He talked about repealing Obamacare, filling out our taxes on a postcard, and thanking his imaginary special guests: The Little Sisters of the Poor and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. After getting the crowd excited with his speech, he answered about five questions before ending the rally and meeting with fans. I had the chance to tell Cruz that I was a student who came all the way from Virginia to volunteer, and that I looked forward to helping him while I am in the state. He thought it was really cool that I came so far to help and he thanked me for everything I have done so far.

When we returned to the hotel after the rallies, both Kirby and I were so excited to tell our fellow classmates everything that happened during the day. After that, I went back to my room and thought about the day, and when trying to connect what we learned in class to what we witnessed on the trail, one thing stood out the most. In order to enter both rallies, guests had to fill out a card that had their name, phone number, email, and whether or not Ted Cruz had their vote (with an undecided option, too). The potential voters didn't seem to mind it, and it was a great way to get voter information so that the campaign could possibly get them to volunteer for the campaign. In class, we learned that when campaigns have secured a voter's allegiance to their candidate, they go a step further and ask for donations and volunteer time in order to take their candidate to the next level, and that is exactly what the Ted Cruz campaign is doing with these entry tickets.

My first day in New Hampshire could not have gone any better. I got to attend two amazing rallies and got to speak to the Senator twice. I am very proud to be working with what I see as an organized and effective campaign thus far, and I look forward to helping the campaign even more through the next nine days through phone-banking, canvassing, and working more events.

In Liberty,
Jacob Stech '18

Rand Paul to Boycott Thursday Night's Fox Business Undercard Debate

Hours ago, Fox Business announced the Republican candidates that will be in the next debate: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich. Two very notable candidates have been left out of this list: Rand Paul and Carly Fiorina.

Weeks before the results were to be announced, Rand Paul pledged that he would not participate in any undercard platforms. Rand has said that he is part of a first-tier campaign and that he only deserves to be in the first-tier debate. So, when the candidate did not make the main stage, it should not have been a surprise that the candidate would reject his invitation to the undercard debate.

I am VERY happy that Rand Paul decided to boycott this debate because it shows that he is able to stand up to the media that obviously does not want him to do well. Because Rand Paul is not a typical Republican, many media outlets, including Fox News, have wanted to exclude him for a while because they want more moderate or conservative candidates like Trump, Cruz, or Rubio to win the nomination and take on Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in the general election. I wouldn't be surprised if the more liberal outlets are only covering Trump so much because they want him to be the nominee so that he would lose the general election to Hillary Clinton. By standing up to the media, Paul is sending a message to the people that the media should not be picking and choosing who is to be on the debate stage.

In regards to Paul's chances, I feel that he does not have enough support to win the nomination, but I do feel like his campaign is underestimated. His campaign most recent announced over 1,000 precinct chairs in Iowa, and Rand spends his time in non-early states building up his grassroots support. While I feel like the media will spin this story into him leaving because he didn't get his way, his real supporters will know that he did this to make a point, and they will continue to support him. Even though many of Rand's supporters are moving to Ted Cruz's campaign (myself included), I believe that Rand has a group of energized supporters that will have him do better than most people expect.

Do you think Rand is doing the right thing by not participating in the next debate? Do you think it will hurt his chances at the nomination. Either way, I think we should continue to think about what the media's motives are behind any story that they decide to cover.

In Liberty,
Jacob Stech '18

The Journey Begins Here...

So, I have been debating for a long time whether I should start a political blog of some sort. Recently, I decided to go through with it because there is so much to be talked about in the political world right now, especially with the 2016 presidential election coming up. I also went through with it because I thought it would be neat for me to share my thoughts about the New Hampshire trip that I am currently on. On this trip, I am campaigning for the Ted Cruz campaign in between the other various events that my professor has me doing, including going to other candidate's rallies and going to various talks that signify the importance of the New Hampshire primary to the culture of the early primary state. 

To those that are reading this that do not know me in person, feel free to look at my profile to get to know me a little better. This blog is meant to be a place where I can post my political thoughts in a secluded place other than on my Facebook profile. I welcome both new and old friends to this blog. I'll try my best to post about important news stories and share my thoughts on current issues (One of the articles I plan to post is one on my thoughts about Rand Paul boycotting the next debates), but don't expect too many of these until I come back from my trip in a couple of weeks. 

I'm not doing this blog to get website hits or for it to become popular, but if you (the readers, however many that may be) want me to share my thoughts on a certain candidate or my thoughts on a certain subject, feel free to comment anywhere and I can look into it depending on how much free time I may have.

Welcome to this blog, and I hope you enjoy watching me develop my political views and opinions along the way.

In Liberty,

Jacob Stech '18